NYDIG Report: Bitcoin Volatility Expected Around ETF Dates, Mt Gox Delays, and Fed Rate Impacts

Key ETF Dates Stir Volatility Expectations in Options Market

The options market is signaling potential significant price movements in bitcoin around crucial ETF dates, according to NYDIG weekly report. The forward volatility of at-the-money (ATM) options from October 13th to October 20th, 2023, has surged by 9.6 points. This data suggests traders anticipate a 5.5% single-day move in bitcoin's spot price during this period. The SEC is set to respond to the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF by October 17th, 2023. Additionally, the SEC has until October 16th to address the Bitwise Bitcoin ETP Trust. Market data indicates traders are bracing for price swings, possibly due to an approval or denial. Another pivotal date is October 13th, the last day for the SEC to appeal the Grayscale case decision.

Mt Gox Delays Creditor Payouts to 2024

The Mt Gox bankruptcy trustee has postponed creditor payouts by a year, moving the deadline from October 31st, 2023, to October 31st, 2024. This delay extends the resolution of a significant event in crypto history, involving approximately 138K BTC, valued at roughly $3.7 billion at current rates. The industry has closely monitored the fund disbursement due to its potential market impact. The resolution has been pushed to 2024.

Fed Rate Policy Sends Ripples Through Financial Markets

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain current interest rates this week. However, hints of a potential rate hike later this year caused asset prices, including stocks and bonds, to decline. Bitcoin initially dipped but ended the week unchanged, contrasting with the performance of stocks and bonds. Over the years, various macroeconomic factors have been proposed as influencers of bitcoin's price. Yet, none consistently explain its decade-long price history. While some factors, like inflation expectations, may play a role in shorter time frames, bitcoin's unique characteristics remain its primary price drivers.

Market Overview

Bitcoin's price remained relatively stable despite weekly fluctuations. In contrast, equities faced challenges due to looming interest rate hike uncertainties. The S&P 500 fell by 2.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 5.0%. The fixed income market also saw declines, with investment grade corporate bonds, high yield bonds, and long-term US Treasuries falling by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 3.0%, respectively. Gold's price slightly increased by 0.4%, while oil declined by 0.6% after a recent rally.

Other Noteworthy News

Mt Gox announced a change in repayment deadlines.

Grayscale Investments is filing for a new Ether Futures ETF.

The NYDFS updated its virtual currency oversight.

The Lazarus Group is reportedly intensifying its crypto hacking efforts.

The U.S. SEC's Crypto Enforcement Chief hinted that charges might extend beyond Coinbase and Binance.

Citi is developing new digital asset capabilities for institutional clients.

DTCC collaborates with Chainlink to bring capital markets on-chain.

Tether resumes its stablecoin lending and invests $420 million in cloud GPUs.

PayPal USD is now accessible on Venmo.

Upcoming Events

September 29: CME expiry

October 3: Valkyrie Bitcoin and Ether Strategy ETF effective date

October 13: SEC appeal deadline in Grayscale case

October 16: SEC's response date for the first spot bitcoin ETF (Bitwise)