SOL Price Prediction: Arrieche's $96 Call Confirmed as $88–$90 Support Band Faces Its Test

From $96 to $91.90: Arrieche's October Call Confirmed

Solana is trading at $91.90 as of the November 3, 2026 observation, down 2.68% over the prior 24 hours with an intraday range of $90.87 to $94.98. That places price well through the level Alejandro Arrieche of FXEmpire flagged on October 27, 2026, when he wrote that "the market's depressed sentiment should push SOL down to $96 to retest key areas of support that have acted as a bouncing pad for Solana in the past." Price passed through $96 without staging a recovery, confirming the directional thesis from that date.

In his November 2, 2026 update, Arrieche revised his view lower: "Hence, SOL could dip to a range between $83 and $77 in the next few days, meaning a total downside risk of 18%." From $91.90, reaching the upper bound at $83 would represent a further decline of roughly 9.7%; the lower bound at $77 would be approximately 16.2% below current price. The October 27, 2026 call has been validated by subsequent price action. Whether the November 2, 2026 target materialises, and over what timeframe, is not quantified in the supplied evidence.

Technical Structure

The moving average stack maps out where resistance sits. The 7-day SMA at $95.49, the 20-day at $100.85, and the 50-day at $108.67 all sit above spot, each acting as overhead resistance in a descending sequence. The sole average below current price is the 200-day SMA at $88.93, placing it near the strong support level of $88.47 and forming the most proximate structural floor in the supplied data.

Momentum readings are deeply compressed. The 14-period RSI stands at 25.74, and the Stochastic %K at 5.62 and %D at 4.50 are both near the lower extreme of their range. In a sustained downtrend, oversold readings describe a condition rather than a reversal signal — they can persist or deepen before any mean reversion occurs. The MACD and its signal line are both at −4.2478, with the histogram printing 0.0000, indicating that bearish momentum has neither accelerated further nor turned. Bollinger Band positioning is consistent: a %B of 0.0176 places SOL at the lower band ($91.57), with the 20-day middle band at $100.85 representing the nearest overhead reference. The 14-day ATR of $3.79 provides a rough daily volatility envelope; one full ATR below current price lands near $88.11, close to the $88.47 strong support cluster.

Derivatives Context

On Binance futures, open interest stood at approximately $860.9 million (9.44 million contracts) on a daily basis, with a 24-hour decline of 0.90%. That is a modest contraction, and it does not establish a directional shift — it reflects limited position reduction at the margin rather than any meaningful change in market structure. The 8-hour funding rate of 0.0100% is classified as neutral in the supplied data, meaning neither long nor short holders are paying a premium to maintain positions, leaving no directional signal from the funding mechanism alone.

The global account long/short ratio on Binance stood at 3.2141 at 07:00 UTC on November 3, 2026, with 76.3% of tracked accounts long and 23.7% short. The top-trader cohort on Binance showed a ratio of 3.7529 at the same observation time, with 79.0% long and 21.0% short. These figures describe the composition of their respective Binance account cohorts; they convey no information about position size, leverage, or entry timing, and should not be read as a proxy for broader retail or institutional positioning.

The taker buy/sell ratio of 0.8804 — derived from 358,124 buy contracts against 406,756 sell contracts in the observed 1-hour window — points to sell-side dominance in market-order flow, with sellers outpacing buyers by roughly 14%.

Key Levels and Conditional Scenarios

The supplied structure identifies four price levels worth tracking. Immediate support sits at $90.19, just below Sunday's intraday low of $90.87. Strong support is at $88.47, near the 200-day SMA at $88.93. Immediate resistance is at $94.30, and strong resistance at $96.69 aligns broadly with the $96 zone from Arrieche's October 27, 2026 analysis — a level that has since flipped from support to resistance.

If SOL holds the $88.47–$90.19 band, immediate resistance at $94.30 becomes the first meaningful test for any recovery. A failure to hold $88.47 removes the last identifiable structural floor ahead of Arrieche's $83–$77 range.

Conditional bear continuation: If price loses $90.19 on a closing basis and $88.47 gives way, the $83 upper bound of Arrieche's November 2, 2026 range becomes the next reference.

Scenario; Direction: short; Entry: $91.90; Stop: $94.30; Target: $88.47; Reward/risk: (91.90 − 88.47) ÷ (94.30 − 91.90) = 3.43 ÷ 2.40 = 1.43:1 (before fees, slippage and gaps).

Conditional oversold bounce: If SOL stabilises above $90.19 and RSI diverges from its current extreme reading, strong resistance at $96.69 becomes the logical mean-reversion reference.

Scenario; Direction: long; Entry: $91.90; Stop: $88.47; Target: $96.69; Reward/risk: (96.69 − 91.90) ÷ (91.90 − 88.47) = 4.79 ÷ 3.43 = 1.40:1 (before fees, slippage and gaps).

In the bearish case, a reclaim of $94.30 on strong volume challenges the short thesis. In the bullish case, a daily close beneath $88.47 negates any near-term bounce argument and shifts focus squarely to the $83–$77 range Arrieche outlined on November 2, 2026. Stops do not guarantee execution at stated prices, particularly around key support and resistance nodes where gaps and slippage are more probable.