NVDA Price Prediction: Below Every Key Moving Average as Melius Trims Target to $315

Every Moving Average Overhead as Melius Revises the NVIDIA Target

NVIDIA's Binance Futures contract was priced at $205.16 in early November 3 trading, down 1.38% over the prior 24 hours across a session range of $202.15 to $210.28, per Binance Futures data. At that level, the contract trades beneath every tracked moving average: the 7-day SMA at $207.12, the 20-day SMA at $212.67, the 200-day SMA at $214.05, and the 50-day SMA at $221.76. The EMA-12 ($209.66) and EMA-26 ($214.67), both derived from Binance Futures daily data, are similarly positioned above the current print. A contract trading beneath the full stack of short- and long-dated averages simultaneously represents a clearly negative trend configuration from a technical standpoint.

The session followed a material analyst development on November 2, 2026, when Melius Research maintained a Buy rating on NVIDIA Corporation's NASDAQ-listed shares while reducing its price target from $420 to $315 — a reduction of approximately 25% — according to reports from MarketBeat and GuruFocus. That rating and target apply to NVIDIA's NASDAQ-listed equity. The Binance Futures contract and NVIDIA's NASDAQ-listed shares are distinct instruments, and no specific horizon for the revised target was supplied in those reports. The Melius target should not be interpreted as a near-term price forecast for the Binance Futures contract.

Momentum Indicators Reflect Sustained Pressure, Not Confirmed Reversal

The momentum picture derived from Binance Futures data is consistent with sustained selling rather than early-stage stabilization. The 14-period RSI at 35.30 sits below the 50 midpoint but has not crossed the conventional oversold threshold of 30, placing it in bearish-leaning neutral territory without an outright oversold signal as of the observation date. The MACD and its signal line have converged at -5.0127, producing a histogram reading of 0.0000 per Binance Futures derived data. That zero histogram indicates a momentary convergence of the two lines rather than confirmed directional momentum, while the deeply negative absolute MACD level reflects the accumulated extent of the prior decline.

The Stochastic oscillator adds further context: %K at 17.96 and %D at 14.37, both below the 20 level commonly associated with oversold conditions per Binance Futures derived indicators. The Bollinger Band %B reading of 0.1345 places the contract close to the lower band at $202.41, well beneath the middle band at $212.67 and the upper band at $222.93. A %B reading below 0.20 indicates price is trading near the statistical lower boundary of recent volatility — a condition that can precede a mean-reversion move but does not establish one independently. The 14-period ATR of $5.30, derived from Binance Futures daily data, provides the operative range within which recent daily swings have been measured.

Key Levels Define the Immediate Range

The pivot point derived from Binance Futures data sits at $205.86, marginally above the November 3 observation price of $205.16, placing the contract just beneath neutral pivot territory at the time of observation. Immediate resistance is identified at $209.58 — closely aligned with the EMA-12 — with stronger resistance at $213.99, a level near the converged 20-day SMA and 200-day SMA. On the downside, immediate support is placed at $201.45, reinforced by the lower Bollinger Band at $202.41 in the same zone, while strong support sits at $197.73. A sustained close below $197.73 would extend the move beyond the structural levels supplied in the Binance Futures data.

Derivatives Positioning as of November 3

Binance Futures open interest stood at 340,138 contracts with a notional value of approximately $67.05 million as of the November 3 observation date, having contracted 2.99% over the prior 24 hours per Binance Futures data. Declining open interest alongside a lower price is consistent with position liquidation rather than fresh directional conviction, though the data alone does not establish which side reduced exposure. The 8-hour funding rate of 0.0089% is effectively flat, indicating no meaningful directional skew in how perpetual contract holders are being compensated at the time of observation.

As of 09:00 UTC on November 3, per Binance Futures data, the global account long/short ratio stood at 3.0601, with 75.4% of tracked Binance accounts net long and 24.6% net short. The top-trader cohort ratio was 3.3860, with 77.2% long and 22.8% short at the same observation time. These ratios describe the distribution of positions within those specific Binance account cohorts; they do not reflect NVIDIA shareholder positioning, institutional flows, or broader market sentiment. The taker buy/sell volume ratio over the same one-hour window was 0.9733, with buy volume of 6,037 contracts against sell volume of 6,203 per Binance Futures data — marginally more sell-side aggression in recent order flow, though the difference is narrow enough to characterize as broadly balanced.

Conditional Scenarios

Two scenarios follow directly from the supplied levels and derived indicators. Neither constitutes a recommendation, and stops do not guarantee execution prices.

If the contract stabilizes near the $201.45 immediate support and the lower Bollinger Band zone, the compressed Stochastic readings and the RSI approaching the 35 level could support a technical recovery toward the immediate resistance cluster.

Oversold bounce; Direction: long; Entry: $205.16; Stop: $201.45; Target: $209.58; Reward/risk: 1.19:1 (before fees, slippage and gaps).

If the contract fails to reclaim the $205.86 pivot and the $209.58 immediate resistance holds, the uniform overhead moving average structure and negative MACD level are consistent with continued pressure toward the lower structural supports.

Bearish continuation; Direction: short; Entry: $205.16; Stop: $209.58; Target: $197.73; Reward/risk: 1.68:1 (before fees, slippage and gaps).

The bearish scenario is invalidated on a sustained daily close above $213.99, which would clear the strong resistance level and the converged SMA cluster and reopen the range toward the upper Bollinger Band at $222.93. The oversold bounce scenario is invalidated on a break and close below $197.73 strong support, at which point the supplied structural levels no longer define a floor.

Synthesis

As of November 3, the Binance Futures contract on NVIDIA sits at a straightforward technical juncture: every tracked moving average is overhead, momentum is weak without being definitively oversold, and the contract is fractionally below its pivot point. The near-term structural range is defined between $197.73 and $209.58, with $213.99 representing the more significant threshold at which the overhead average cluster would begin to clear. Melius Research's November 2, 2026 decision to reduce its price target on NVIDIA's NASDAQ-listed shares from $420 to $315 while maintaining a Buy rating, as reported by MarketBeat and GuruFocus, represents a meaningful reassessment of the underlying equity's valuation. Because that target applies to the NASDAQ-listed equity and carries no specified horizon, it offers no direct read-across to the Binance Futures contract's near-term range. No additional dated catalyst is present in the supplied evidence; the timing of any subsequent driver remains unknown.