AI data-center power crunch trims Anthropic to 92.85% on Polymarket
Anthropic Still Dominates Polymarket’s “Best AI Model by End of June” Market as Odds Slip to 92.85%
Rising power demand from AI data centers is emerging as a key constraint on the AI buildout, shifting investor focus from chips to the underlying infrastructure that keeps models running. On Polymarket’s “Which company has best AI model end of June?” contract, traders still heavily favor Anthropic, though its implied odds have eased to 92.85%.
Key Takeaways
- Anthropic leads the Polymarket market at 92.85% implied odds, versus Google at 3.95% and OpenAI at 2.65%.
- Traders have kept a lopsided stance toward Anthropic even as attention shifts to power and grid capacity as an AI bottleneck.
- The contract resolves on June 30, 2026, with Anthropic down from 96.2% previously to 92.85% now.
AI investment themes are moving beyond semiconductors as growing data-center electricity use collides with grid constraints. A Yahoo Finance analysis of government and industry data estimates U.S. data-center power demand could more than double by 2030, rising from about 167 terawatt-hours in 2023 to roughly 376 TWh by the end of the decade. The incremental demand is described as enough electricity to power about 20 million average U.S. homes for a year, and closer to 25 million to 27 million homes if total power generation expands with demand. Brett Conrad, chair of Fixx Energy, said energy storage can act as a buffer between power producers and consumers, helping manage peaks when demand spikes or the grid tightens. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s preliminary inventory shows developers plan to add 24 gigawatts of utility-scale battery storage capacity in 2026, second only to solar and ahead of wind and natural gas among planned additions.
Polymarket Data: $16.41M Volume with Anthropic at 92.85% vs Google 3.95% and OpenAI 2.65%
On Polymarket, the multi-outcome contract has drawn $16,409,377 in volume and remains sharply skewed toward Anthropic. Anthropic is priced at 92.85% Yes versus 7.15% No, while Google sits at 3.95% Yes and 96.05% No and OpenAI at 2.65% Yes and 97.35% No. The long tail is effectively written off, with xAI at 0.15% Yes and 99.85% No and several other outcomes marked around 0.05% Yes and 99.95% No. Despite the dominant pricing, the leader has softened from 96.2% previously to 92.85%, signaling some hedging without changing the market’s core consensus.
Watch whether the spread between Anthropic and the next two outcomes tightens from the current 92.85% versus 3.95% and 2.65% as the June 30, 2026 resolution date approaches, and whether volume accelerates beyond $16.41 million on any repricing.
Beyond AI Models: Other High-Interest Polymarket Contracts as Data-Center Power Demand and Grid Constraints Surge
Beyond the late-June model sweepstakes, traders are also positioning across other active Polymarket contracts, from sports to the next cadence of AI releases. The Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Set 2 O/U 8.5 market is priced at 100.0% on $717,604 in volume, while “Which company has best AI model end of July?” still points to Anthropic at 83.5% on $917,039. In release-timing bets, “When will GPT-5.6 be released?” favors “Not released by June 28” at 67.1% with $511,561 traded, underscoring how quickly attention shifts from performance rankings to rollout risk.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.4 |
| 7d | +2.4 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Which company has best AI model end of June?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$16,409,377
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 92.8% | 7.2% |
| 4.0% | 96.0% | |
| OpenAI | 2.6% | 97.3% |
| xAI | 0.1% | 99.8% |
+11 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider — Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Set 2 O/U 8.5 100%
- Which company has best AI model end of July? — Anthropic 84%
- When will GPT-5.6 be released? — Not released by June 28 67%