Alaska blocks 'Dan J Sullivan' bid as Polymarket puts Fujimori 0.2–0.3% at 95%
Alaska Blocks Dan J. Sullivan From Primary Ballot as Polymarket Prices a Razor-Thin Fujimori Win
Alaska election officials have blocked a retired schoolteacher named Dan J Sullivan from appearing on the state’s August primary ballot, citing concerns his candidacy was meant to confuse voters. On Polymarket, traders in the “Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)” ladder contract pushed the leading bracket higher as the market priced a very narrow Fujimori win.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket’s leading outcome is “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” at 94.95% implied odds.
- The top bracket strengthened as the contract’s pricing clustered around a razor-thin Fujimori margin.
- The market shows a sharp re-rating recently, with the historical summary showing +61.45 points over both 24 hours and 7 days.
Alaska’s elections director ruled that retired schoolteacher Dan J Sullivan is ineligible to appear on the state’s August primary ballot, even though he shares the same name and party affiliation as incumbent Senator Dan S Sullivan. The director said the filing appeared intended “to confuse or mislead” voters and was not submitted as a good-faith candidacy, citing factors such as campaign materials styled after the senator and the hiring of a political consultant with a history of supporting Democratic candidates. The decision followed a probe launched after the senator alleged the effort was designed to trick voters and benefit Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, who is also running for the seat. The elections director said she found no evidence of coordination between Dan J Sullivan and Democratic officials or Peltola, and the would-be candidate has 30 days to appeal. The senator’s campaign praised the ruling and said it supported a free and fair election without a “sham candidate,” while Peltola’s campaign denied involvement.
Peru Election Margin Ladder Sees $2.27M Volume as “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” Jumps to 94.95% Implied Odds
Polymarket shows $2,266,692 in volume on the “Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)” ladder, with pricing heavily concentrated in a single narrow band. The “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” bracket is priced at 94.95% Yes versus 5.05% No, while “Fujimori 0.3–0.4%” sits at 4.0% Yes and 96.0% No. Lower-probability alternatives are priced close to zero, including “Fujimori 0.1–0.2%” at 0.95% Yes / 99.05% No and “Sánchez 0–0.1%” at 0.15% Yes / 99.85% No, signaling traders see a tight but highly specific outcome as the dominant risk.
Any further repricing is likely to show up first as a redistribution across adjacent 0.1% brackets, especially between “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” and “Fujimori 0.3–0.4%,” given how little probability is currently assigned outside those bands.
Beyond Peru: Other High-Interest Polymarket Politics Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond Peru’s razor-thin margin pricing, Polymarket traders are also concentrating liquidity in longer-dated political wagers, from 24.35% on Gavin Newsom in “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” ($1,199,587,260 volume) to 25.5% on Jordan Bardella in “Next French Presidential Election” ($100,684,546). In Latin America, “Brazil Presidential Election” is led by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 51.5% with $100,715,324 traded, while the U.K.-focused “Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?” is priced at 99.05% for “No” on $4,176,100 volume.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +61.5 |
| 7d | +61.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets)
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$2,266,692
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Fujimori 0.2–0.3% | 95.0% | 5.0% |
| Fujimori 0.3–0.4% | 4.0% | 96.0% |
| Fujimori 0.1–0.2% | 0.9% | 99.0% |
| Fujimori 0–0.1% | 0.3% | 99.7% |
+19 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 24%
- Next French Presidential Election — Jordan Bardella 26%
- Brazil Presidential Election — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52%
- Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? — No 99%