Alaska blocks Dan Sullivan namesake as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
Alaska Ballot Ruling Doesn’t Budge Polymarket: Jordan Bardella Holds 25.5% to Win France’s Next Presidential Election
An Alaska elections official ruled a U.S. Senate challenger sharing the same name and party affiliation as incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is ineligible for the state’s August primary ballot. On Polymarket’s “Next French Presidential Election” market, pricing was flat, with Jordan Bardella leading at 25.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket implies Jordan Bardella is the top 2027 French presidential winner pick at 25.5% (No 74.5%).
- Despite the Alaska ballot ruling in a U.S. Senate race, the French election contract showed no net move, holding at 25.5% for the leading outcome.
- The market is set to resolve by 2027-04-30, and the latest 24-hour and 7-day moves show a +2.0 percentage-point change.
A top Alaska elections official ruled on Monday that a U.S. Senate candidate who shares the same name and party affiliation as Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is ineligible to appear on the state’s August primary ballot. Alaska Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher said in a letter that the challenger’s filing was not made in good faith, arguing it was intended to confuse or mislead voters and compromise the ballot’s fairness or neutrality. The challenger can appeal the decision, Beecher said, with ballots due to be printed on June 28. The dispute followed the challenger’s filing shortly before the June 1 deadline and drew allegations from Republicans that he was a “sham” candidate aiming to affect Democratic former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola’s prospects, claims that both the challenger and Peltola’s campaign have denied. Alaska’s lieutenant governor previously announced an investigation citing what she called credible allegations that the candidacy was coordinated to confuse voters.
Next French Presidential Election Market Sees $100.7M Volume as Bardella Leads at 25.5% (Philippe 19.5%, Mélenchon 12.5%
On Polymarket, the “Next French Presidential Election” contract was unchanged, with the leading outcome Jordan Bardella priced at 25.5% Yes versus 74.5% No on roughly $100.7 million in volume. The next tier showed Édouard Philippe at 19.5% Yes / 80.5% No, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon traded at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No. Further down the board, Marine Le Pen sat at 7.5% Yes / 92.5% No, with long shots like Éric Zemmour at 0.75% Yes / 99.25% No, indicating traders are spreading probability across multiple candidates rather than converging on a single dominant favorite.
The market’s next major repricing catalysts are expected to be formal declarations, party primary dynamics, and polling shifts as the 2027-04-30 resolution date approaches.
Beyond France 2027: Other High-Interest Political Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond the France 2027 board, Polymarket traders are also allocating risk across a slate of high-volume political contracts that span multiple regions and election cycles. In the $1.20 billion “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” market, Gavin Newsom leads at 24.45%, while Brazil’s presidential contest prices Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 51.5% on about $100.6 million in volume. Elsewhere, the “Makerfield by-election Winner” contract has Andy Burnham at 80.5% (about $6.3 million traded), and Peru’s razor-thin second-round margin market favors “Fujimori 0.2–0.3%” at 93.45% on roughly $2.25 million.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.0 |
| 7d | +2.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Next French Presidential Election
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Apr 30, 2027 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$100,676,044
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bardella | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Édouard Philippe | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Marine Le Pen | 7.5% | 92.5% |
+32 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 24%
- Brazil Presidential Election — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52%
- Makerfield by-election Winner — Andy Burnham 80%
- Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets) — Fujimori 0.2–0.3% 93%