Antebi flags defense budget crunch as Polymarket keeps Eizenkot at 39%
Israel Next Prime Minister Market Tightens: Eizenkot Leads Netanyahu as Defense Budget Becomes Top Election Issue
Remarks from Bank Hapoalim CEO Yadin Antebi highlighting defense spending as the next Israeli government’s central economic challenge are colliding with a tight Polymarket race on who will be the next prime minister after the next election. In the contract, Gadi Eizenkot remained the front-runner at 38.55%, edging Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the leading pick at 38.55% to be Israel’s next prime minister, versus Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5%.
- Traders kept the contest close even as debate over controlling Israel’s defense budget was framed as the next government’s main economic challenge.
- The market resolves by 2026-12-31, with $23,773,687 in matched volume at the latest snapshot.
Bank Hapoalim CEO Yadin Antebi told a conference that the next Israeli government’s central economic challenge will be gaining control over the defense budget, arguing that its size will heavily shape Israelis’ standard of living in the coming years. Speaking at EY’s annual real estate conference, Antebi described Israel’s economy as having entered the war on October 7 from a strong starting point with low unemployment, low inflation, and low leverage in both the private and public sectors. He said those conditions helped the economy function under wartime pressures and that businesses recovered quickly after the initial shock, returning close to regular activity within two or three months. Antebi said budget decisions in the next government would be shaped first and foremost by defense spending. He also said the macroeconomic picture looked less favorable than it did several months earlier, citing expectations of a different economic and geopolitical equilibrium that did not materialize.
Polymarket Odds and Liquidity Snapshot: Eizenkot 38.55% vs Netanyahu 36.5% on $23.77M Matched Volume
On Polymarket’s multi-outcome market “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”, Gadi Eizenkot led at 38.55% Yes / 61.45% No, narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5% Yes / 63.5% No. Naftali Bennett was priced at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No, while longer shots such as Avigdor Lieberman traded at 3.7% Yes / 96.3% No and Itamar Ben Gvir at 1.2% Yes / 98.8% No. Total matched volume stood at $23,773,687, signaling heavy liquidity concentrated in the top two outcomes and a market still split on the most likely winner.
Watch whether liquidity continues to concentrate in the Eizenkot-Netanyahu pair or rotates toward a third option; the contract is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31.
Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking
Beyond Israel’s leadership race, Polymarket flow has also concentrated in adjacent Middle East risk gauges, including “97.1% No” on “Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?” on $1,643,227 in volume, as traders look for clearer signals on cross-border diplomacy. The platform’s broader geopolitical and macro complex—spanning conflict timelines, sanctions paths, central-bank moves and election spillovers—often trades in tandem as participants hedge headline shocks across regions rather than isolate any single political outcome.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.0 |
| 7d | +2.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$23,773,687
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Naftali Bennett | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 3.7% | 96.3% |
+14 more strikes not shown