AP-NORC Iran poll dents Trump as Polymarket keeps Vance atop 2028 race
AP-NORC Poll on Trump’s Iran Handling Hits 65% Disapproval as Polymarket Prices JD Vance as 2028 Front-Runner
A new AP-NORC poll showing broad public disapproval of President Donald Trump’s handling of Iran comes as Polymarket traders continue to price the 2028 presidential field with JD Vance as the narrow front-runner. In the Polymarket “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market, Trump is priced as a long shot relative to several other contenders.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices JD Vance as the top 2028 winner at 20.35% implied odds, while Donald Trump is at 2.05%.
- Traders’ positioning comes as polling data shows 65% of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran and his job approval is 37%.
- The “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market is set to resolve on 2028-11-07.
A new AP-NORC poll found that about two-thirds of U.S. adults, 65%, disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling issues with Iran, roughly matching his broader job approval rating. The survey put Trump’s approval at 37%, unchanged from a similar poll conducted in May. The poll was conducted June 11-17 after Trump called off threats to escalate the war with Iran and as he suggested a deal had been reached. It was fielded as Trump announced a deal with Iran and authorized an end to the U.S. naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, concluding just before the deal was signed Wednesday. The agreement described in the report would allow Iran to sell oil freely again, reopen the strait without tolls for two months, restart talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, and call for Iran to dilute its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
Polymarket “Presidential Election Winner 2028” Sees $635.5M Volume: Vance 20.35%, Newsom/Rubio 15.45%, Trump 2.05%
On Polymarket, the “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market has about $635.5 million in matched volume, with the top line priced tightly: JD Vance at 20.35% Yes (79.65% No), while Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio are both at 15.45% Yes (84.55% No). Mid-tier pricing shows a sharp drop-off, with Jon Ossoff at 5.95% Yes (94.05% No) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 5.45% Yes (94.55% No). Donald Trump is priced at 2.05% Yes (97.95% No), signaling traders see only a small chance he wins the 2028 election relative to the leading contenders.
Polymarket pricing will likely track shifts in the 2028 contender slate and any sustained movement in implied odds for the top three outcomes, particularly whether JD Vance remains near the 20% level into the next major repricing window ahead of the 2028-11-07 resolution date.
Beyond the 2028 Race: Other High-Interest Geopolitical Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Away from the 2028 White House jockeying, Polymarket activity is clustering in geopolitical and leadership-risk contracts tied to shifting alliances and regime durability. In “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban),” Petro - Colombia President leads at 51.5% as traders weigh near-term political instability, while deadline-driven Iran questions remain crowded, including “What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?” with Oil Sanction Relief priced at 100.0%. Cross-cutting those themes, “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” has drawn $662,768,238 in matched volume, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading at 49.0%, underscoring how macro headlines and party dynamics are being priced in parallel.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -3.1 |
| 7d | -3.1 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$635,507,754
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 20.4% | 79.7% |
| Gavin Newsom | 15.4% | 84.5% |
| Marco Rubio | 15.4% | 84.5% |
| Jon Ossoff | 6.0% | 94.0% |
+33 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? — Oil Sanction Relief 100%
- Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) — Petro - Colombia President 52%
- Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? — J.D. Vance 100%
- Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? — Masoud Pezeshkian 100%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49%