Banxico survey cools inflation view as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed no-cuts at 78%

Mexico Inflation Expectations Cool: Polymarket’s “No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026” Odds Slip to 77.95%

A central bank survey pointing to cooling inflation expectations in Mexico put fresh focus on global disinflation narratives that can influence U.S. rate expectations. On Polymarket, traders still heavily price in no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, though the leading contract has eased from earlier levels.

Key Takeaways

Polymarket prices a 77.95% chance that the Federal Reserve makes 0 rate cuts in 2026 (0 bps).
Traders marked down the no-cuts contract by 4.15 percentage points to 77.95% amid broader discussion of easing inflation expectations signaled by the Banxico survey headline.
The market resolves on 2026-12-31, with a 24-hour and 7-day move of +2.25 percentage points in the latest summary.

A survey tracked by Mexico’s central bank showed private-sector economists expecting lower inflation in Mexico. The results signaled a softer inflation outlook than previously anticipated in respondents’ forecasts. Such shifts in inflation expectations can shape views on the path of monetary policy by influencing perceived pressure for restrictive interest rates. The survey is closely watched as a gauge of how economists see price dynamics evolving over time. The update added to evidence that some inflation measures are expected to cool, which can affect broader global rate expectations.

Fed Cuts 2026 Ladder: $40.12M Volume Prices 0 Cuts at 77.95% vs 1 Cut at 14.5%

Polymarket’s ladder on “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” shows the top-priced outcome as 0 cuts: 0 (0 bps) Yes 77.95% versus No 22.05%, on about $40.12 million in volume. The next rung, 1 cut (25 bps), is priced at Yes 14.5% / No 85.5%, with probabilities dropping quickly beyond that. Traders assign only Yes 3.55% / No 96.45% to 2 cuts (50 bps) and Yes 2.35% / No 97.65% to 3 cuts (75 bps), indicating a strong skew toward a no-cuts baseline rather than a multi-cut cycle. Farther out the curve, 4 cuts (100 bps) sits at Yes 0.45% / No 99.55%, underscoring how little demand there is for large-easing scenarios ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution date.

Whether odds continue to drift away from the 0-cuts outcome will likely hinge on future rate-path signaling and inflation expectations data that push traders toward the 1-cut and 2-cut rungs on the ladder into the 2026-12-31 resolution.

Beyond the Fed: Other High-Volume Inflation and Central Bank Contracts Polymarket Traders Track

Beyond the longer-dated rate path, traders are also clustering into nearer-term policy timing and cross-asset macro bets. In “Fed Decision in July?”, “No change” leads at 79.5% on $29.0 million in volume, up 8.0 percentage points, while deal-watchers are leaning into “Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?” with SpaceX priced at 83.5% on $4.5 million—illustrating how Polymarket liquidity often shifts between central-bank calendars and broader risk-on narratives.

Odds Trend

Window	Change (pp)
24h	+2.2
7d	+2.2

By the Numbers

Platform: Polymarket
Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
Status: Active (open for trading)
Volume: ~$40,118,330

Top strike rungs