Bitcoin dips ahead of Warsh-led FOMC as Polymarket sees 99.95% o1 FDV >$100M
Warsh’s First FOMC Decision Keeps Crypto Risk-Off as Polymarket Holds o1 FDV Odds Steady
Crypto markets were cautious ahead of the first Federal Open Market Committee rate decision under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with bitcoin sliding below $65,000 as traders awaited his inflation guidance. On Polymarket, pricing on the “o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch?” ladder contract held steady, with the leading strike still heavily favored.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 99.95% chance that o1’s FDV is above $100M one day after launch.
- The broader crypto backdrop was risk-off ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC decision, while UNI outperformed, but Polymarket pricing on o1 FDV remained unchanged.
- The contract is set to resolve on 2028-01-01T05:00:00+00:00, and the market’s 24-hour and 7-day move were both 0.0 points.
Bitcoin slipped below $65,000 ahead of the day’s Federal Open Market Committee interest-rate decision, the first meeting led by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, after trading near $67,000 a day earlier. The broader crypto market softened as traders focused less on an immediate rate move and more on Warsh’s post-meeting press conference for signals on inflation. Derivatives indicators pointed to subdued positioning, with crypto futures volume down 20% in 24 hours to $165 billion and open interest down 2.3% to $110 billion, while liquidations fell 44% to about $310 million. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility hovered near an annualized 39%, around multiweek lows, with a similar tone in ether volatility measures. Against that backdrop, Uniswap’s UNI extended a weeklong rally, jumping about 20% in 24 hours, helped by a bullish Standard Chartered forecast and deflationary tokenomics.
o1 FDV Ladder on Polymarket: $342K Matched Volume with 99.95% Odds Above $100M and 90.05% Above $500M
Polymarket has matched $342,413 of volume on the o1 FDV ladder, with odds flat on the session. Traders are pricing “above $100M” at 99.95% Yes versus 0.05% No, and “above $500M” at 90.05% Yes versus 9.95% No, pointing to strong conviction that the project clears mid-range thresholds one day after launch. Farther out on the ladder, pricing steepens: “above $700M” sits at 13.15% Yes versus 86.85% No, while “above $1B” is 2.5% Yes versus 97.5% No, signaling limited appetite for an extreme upside outcome at that horizon.
Any shifts in ladder pricing across the $500M, $700M and $1B strikes, alongside changes in total matched volume and whether the market begins to steepen or flatten ahead of the 2028-01-01 resolution date.
Beyond o1 FDV: Other Macro-Driven Polymarket Contracts Traders Watch Around FOMC and Inflation Signals
Beyond token-specific ladders, Polymarket traders are also clustering in larger, macro-sensitive crypto rails that tend to react quickly to shifts in rate and inflation expectations. The busiest is “What price will Bitcoin hit in June?” with 100.0% on “↓ 70,000” and $19,050,446 in matched volume, alongside “What price will Ethereum hit in June?” at 100.0% on “↓ 1,900” with $4,327,673. Shorter-dated hedging has flowed into “What price will Bitcoin hit June 15-21?” (100.0% on “↓ 64,000,” $589,154) and “Bitcoin above ___ on June 19?” (99.95% on “56,000,” $802,842), underscoring how traders are pricing near-term levels even as broader policy signals stay in focus.
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jan 01, 2028 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$342,413
- 24h change: +0.0 pp
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 100,000,000 | 100.0% | 0.1% |
| 200,000,000 | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| 300,000,000 | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| 400,000,000 | 95.5% | 4.5% |
+3 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- What price will Bitcoin hit in June? — ↓ 70,000 100%
- What price will Ethereum hit in June? — ↓ 1,900 100%
- What price will Bitcoin hit June 15-21? — ↓ 64,000 100%
- Bitcoin above ___ on June 19? — 56,000 100%