Colorado primary surprise as Polymarket keeps Maduro favored at 80%
Colorado Democratic Primary Surprise: Gonzalez Wins, While Polymarket Keeps Maduro Favored to Lead Venezuela in 2026
Colorado’s Democratic primary for secretary of state produced a surprise winner, but Polymarket traders in the separate “Venezuela leader end of 2026?” contract kept backing Nicolás Maduro as the most likely outcome. The market’s leading outcome was priced at 79.75%, up 5.5 percentage points on the snapshot.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Nicolás Maduro as the leader of Venezuela at end-2026 at 79.75% (No 20.25%).
- After news that a progressive Gonzalez defeated Danielson in Colorado’s Democratic primary for secretary of state, the Venezuela leadership market showed little sign of shifting away from Maduro.
- The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, while the leading outcome has moved by -3.9 points over the past 24 hours and 7 days.
A progressive candidate named Gonzalez defeated Danielson in Colorado’s Democratic primary for secretary of state, according to the report. The race determined which Democrat will advance as the party’s nominee for the statewide election. The outcome highlighted the strength of the progressive wing in the contest. The report framed the result as a notable primary win for Gonzalez. No further details on vote margins or turnout were provided in the available summary.
Venezuela Leader End-2026 Odds: Maduro at 79.75% on $92.23M Volume as Rodríguez Trades 14% and Machado 3.25%
On Polymarket’s “Venezuela leader end of 2026?” market, Nicolás Maduro led at 79.75% Yes versus 20.25% No on $92.23 million in volume. Delcy Rodríguez was next at 14.00% Yes / 86.00% No, while María Corina Machado traded at 3.25% Yes / 96.75% No. Longer-shot outcomes such as “No Head of State” sat at 1.35% Yes / 98.65% No, with several fringe names—including Donald Trump—marked at 0.15% Yes / 99.85% No, signaling a heavily concentrated market consensus around Maduro.
Watch whether liquidity migrates from the top line (Maduro) into the second tier (Rodríguez) and whether the leader’s price holds above the high-70s as the market approaches its 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Beyond Colorado Politics: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Tracking, Including Venezuela’s 2026 Leader
Beyond the Venezuela leadership market, Polymarket traders have been piling into a handful of big-ticket political contracts that tie together U.S. and European risk. “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” leads with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49.0% on $666.89 million in volume, while “Presidential Election Winner 2028” shows JD Vance on top at 19.85% with $642.99 million traded. Elsewhere, bettors are pricing continuity in incumbency-linked markets, with “Trump out as President before 2027?” at 91.5% for No on $9.44 million, and “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” implying a 94.0% favorite on $14.26 million.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -3.9 |
| 7d | -3.9 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$92,232,742
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| María Corina Machado | 3.2% | 96.8% |
| No Head of State | 1.4% | 98.7% |
+12 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) — Starmer - UK PM 94%
- Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 20%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49%
- Trump out as President before 2027? — No 92%