Core PCE jitters hit Bitcoin as Polymarket pegs Anthropic at 98.4%
Polymarket’s “Best AI Model by End of June” Contract: Anthropic Jumps to 98.4% as Macro Volatility Drives Risk Hedging
Bitcoin derivatives markets were flashing signs of investor panic ahead of a key U.S. inflation release, with traders paying up for downside protection and watching whether the core PCE reading could flip sentiment. On Polymarket, the contract “Which company has best AI model end of June?” was priced even more decisively toward Anthropic, with its implied odds rising to 98.4%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket priced Anthropic as the favorite at 98.4% (No 1.6%) in “Which company has best AI model end of June?”
- The market’s leading outcome strengthened as macro risk headlines kept traders focused on positioning and volatility across AI-linked and crypto-linked assets.
- The contract is set to resolve on June 30, 2026; Anthropic’s implied odds were up 2.2 percentage points from 96.2%.
Bitcoin derivatives markets were signaling stress ahead of Thursday’s U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report, with investors paying an unusually large premium for protection against declines. The report said bitcoin’s one-week options skew showed a near 25-point premium for puts over calls, a sign that traders were leaning heavily toward downside bets. Core PCE is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and is expected to show a 3.4% year-on-year rise for May, up from 3.3% in April and the highest since late 2023, according to FactSet. The piece said a softer-than-expected print could weaken the case for further Federal Reserve rate increases and trigger a snap adjustment in sentiment. Bitcoin had rebounded to about $61,500 after touching a 20-month low near $59,000, with the article also noting WTI crude had fallen to around $70 from above $100 during the Iran war in March and April.
Odds and Volume Breakdown: $21.6M Traded as Anthropic Holds 98.4% vs Google 0.55% and OpenAI 0.45%
Polymarket’s “Which company has best AI model end of June?” contract showed a highly one-sided book, with $21,617,086 in volume and Anthropic priced at 98.4% Yes versus 1.6% No. The next closest outcomes were priced near zero: Google at 0.55% Yes / 99.45% No and OpenAI at 0.45% Yes / 99.55% No. A long tail of other names (including xAI, Amazon, Microsoft, Mistral, DeepSeek, ByteDance, Alibaba, Moonshot, and Z.ai) sat at 0.05% Yes / 99.95% No. The pricing implies traders see little competitive uncertainty at current levels, with most liquidity concentrated in the Anthropic outcome.
The market is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026; traders will watch whether any of the trailing outcomes gain meaningful share from their sub-1% pricing as volume builds.
Macro Watchlist on Polymarket: Bitcoin Options Skew and U.S. Core PCE Inflation Expectations in Focus
Beyond the AI-model leaderboard, traders are also rotating into a broader slate of active Polymarket contracts that span tech and event-driven risk. “Which company has best AI model end of July?” implies 86.0% odds for Anthropic on $1,705,710 in volume, while the “Uruguay vs. Spain” market prices Spain at 65.5% with $1,207,424 traded—underscoring how quickly liquidity can migrate across themes as sentiment shifts.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.4 |
| 7d | +2.4 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Which company has best AI model end of June?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$21,617,086
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| OpenAI | 0.5% | 99.5% |
| Z.ai | 0.1% | 100.0% |
+11 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Which company has best AI model end of July? — Anthropic 86%
- Uruguay vs. Spain — Spain 66%