Deal odds surge as JD Vance leads Polymarket signs
Iran Deal Prospects Drive Polymarket Odds: JD Vance Surges to 76.5% as August 1 Resolution Draws Near
The Polymarket contract on who will sign the U.S. x Iran deal shows traders pricing in a higher likelihood of a deal signer as odds rise to about 76.5% for JD Vance and the market remains active ahead of the August 1 resolution date.
Treasury yields moved lower after reports of a preliminary peace agreement between Washington and Tehran, catalyzing investor shifts on inflation expectations and rate paths. The CNBC-linked briefing noted a drop in the 10-year yield to around 4.44% and a dip in the 2-year yield, with traders weighing how any Iran deal could influence Fed policy. The article also highlighted statements from political figures suggesting a signing ceremony could occur in coming days, adding to the sense of near-term clarity on the diplomatic front. Polymarket’s current odds imply growing confidence that a deal is feasible, reflected in the market’s rising lead-out odds for the top contenders. Market activity remains robust, with volume approaching half a million dollars and ongoing willingness to trade as the resolution date approaches in early August.
Trading Momentum and Liquidity: Nearly $442k in Volume with High Lead-Out Odds Ahead of the August 1 Date
Yes odds by strike: JD Vance 76.5%, Abbas Araghchi 59.0%, Shehbaz Sharif 44.5%, Donald Trump 34.5%, Masoud Pezeshkian 32.5%, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani 28.0%, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi 20.5%, Marco Rubio 17.5%, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan 17.5%, Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah 16.0%, King Abdullah II 15.5%, Mohammed bin Salman 13.0%. No odds: 23.5%, 41.0%, 55.5%, 65.5%, 67.5%, 72.0%, 79.5%, 82.5%, 82.5%, 84.0%, 84.5%, 87.0%. Resolution window is 2026-08-01T03:59:00+00:00, and the market remains active with total volume around 442,497.0.
Beyond the Headlines: Macro and Geopolitical Markets on Polymarket Now—Top Non-Sport Contracts Shaping the Platform’s La
Polymarket traders can now turn their attention to a broader slate of macro and geopolitical contracts that are drawing notable engagement on the platform, including the Presidential Election Winner 2028 and Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 markets where activity remains elevated as participants assess long-run political trajectories, and the What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? contract, which sits at 85% odds with substantial volume indicating persistent infrared attention to U.S.-Iran dynamics. As the platform’s macro slate expands, liquidity across these contracts reflects a continued appetite for positioning around looming geopolitical developments and the possible catalysts that could shift policy and markets in the months ahead.
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Aug 01, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$442,497
- 24h change: -11.0 pp
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| Abbas Araghchi | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Donald Trump | 34.5% | 65.5% |
+15 more strikes not shown
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