Fed-cut odds stay unlikely as Warsh week boosts crypto rally
Bitcoin Surges Toward $67k as Iran Ceasefire Boosts Risk Appetite and BTC Buy Boosts Crypto Stocks
The primary article describes Bitcoin price spikes and crypto-stock gains driven by an Iran ceasefire and a large BTC purchase, setting the stage for Fed week as traders eye the first FOMC meeting under Warsh. This backdrop helps explain the latest shift in Polymarket odds for the Fed rate-cut ladder.
Bitcoin prices surged to a two-week high near $67,000 as a renewed Iran ceasefire eased macro fears, with Strategy’s $100 million BTC buy contributing to the rally. The report notes that the move came ahead of what observers call a pivotal FOMC week, where policy signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh are expected to influence risk assets. Market commentary cautions that relief rallies may not translate into durable demand, given a history of volatility in crypto-linked equities. The article highlights institutional appetite for crypto-related exposure, even as traders remain wary of macro headwinds and policy surprises that could alter risk sentiment in the near term.
Market Pulse: Fed Week Signals and Precise Odds Show Dwindling Chance of Cuts Across Key Strikes
Yes odds are listed for each strike on the price ladder. At the 0 bps strike, Yes odds sit at 70.55% with No at 29.45%. Moving to the 1 bps strike, Yes odds decline to 20.5% and No rises to 79.5%. The 2 bps strike shows Yes 6.2% and No 93.8%, while the 3 bps strike is 1.95% Yes and 98.05% No. Traders appear to largely price in no Fed cuts at higher strike levels, with odds for multiple cuts becoming increasingly tiny (e.g., 4 bps at 0.55% Yes, 99.45% No; 6 bps at 0.45% Yes, 99.55% No). The resolution date sits at 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00, but the figures above reflect current pricing across the ladder rather than a single settlement value.
The Bridge: Beyond Bitcoin — Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Shaping Narrative During Warsh FOMC Week
As the main narrative centers on Bitcoin and macro risk sentiment ahead of the Fed’s Warsh week, traders may also be parsing a broader menu of macro and geopolitical contracts on Polymarket. Beyond the Fed ladder, related markets include Fed Decision in June? with 99.45% Yes odds and substantial turnover, Fed Decision in July? at 93.5% No change but smaller volume, and Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) showing a near-unanimous Pause–Pause–Pause stance at 99.3% odds, underscoring a traction-rich environment for macro-event positioning across the platform.
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$35,283,323
- 24h change: +2.4 pp
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 70.5% | 29.4% |
| 1 (25 bps) | 20.5% | 79.5% |
| 2 (50 bps) | 6.2% | 93.8% |
| 3 (75 bps) | 1.9% | 98.0% |
+9 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Fed Decision in June? — No change 99%
- Fed Decision in July? — No change 94%
- Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) — Pause–Pause–Pause 99%