Figure (FIGR) Targets $4T Tokenized Credit Market: Bernstein

Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) is making bold moves into the tokenized credit market, with Bernstein identifying a $4 trillion addressable opportunity as the firm pivots beyond its home equity roots. In a research note released Tuesday, Bernstein reiterated its “Outperform” rating for Figure, setting a price target of $67—67% above current trading levels.

Key to this optimism is Figure’s transition from a fintech lender focused on home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) to a broader blockchain and AI-driven credit platform. Tokenization, which transforms loans into tradable onchain assets with real-time settlement, is at the heart of this strategy. Bernstein sees this as a major growth lever, enabling Figure to tap into a far larger market than its traditional HELOC business.

The numbers back up the bullish case. Figure’s loan volumes hit $1.34 billion in April, a 108% year-on-year surge and the second consecutive month exceeding $1 billion. Bernstein forecasts these volumes will grow to $16.5 billion by 2027, up from $8.4 billion in 2025.

Tokenized Credit: A Massive Untapped Market

Bernstein’s $4 trillion market estimate spans multiple loan categories, including mortgages, auto loans, small-business loans, and home equity products—segments where Figure is actively expanding. While tokenized credit remains a niche within the broader $5.5 billion real-world asset (RWA) tokenization market, the potential for growth is substantial as adoption accelerates.

Competitors like Centrifuge are also bringing credit onchain, offering tokenized Treasury products and institutional-grade assets in decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems. Figure, meanwhile, is leveraging its Hastra ecosystem to develop tokenized auto loan products designed to integrate with DeFi and other blockchain markets.

Despite the early stage of tokenized credit adoption, the expansion signals a growing appetite for blockchain solutions in traditional financial markets. By addressing inefficiencies like settlement delays and limited liquidity, tokenized credit could become a key driver for onchain financial products.

Road Ahead for Figure

While Figure’s stock has gained nearly 10% over the past month, Bernstein argues it remains undervalued relative to its future growth potential. The firm’s strong footing in blockchain infrastructure, combined with the accelerating demand for tokenized assets, positions it as a key player in the next wave of financial innovation. As adoption scales and loan volumes grow, Figure could consolidate its lead in this emerging market.

For investors, the coming years will be critical as Figure transitions from proof-of-concept to capturing meaningful market share in tokenized credit. With a $4 trillion market in its crosshairs, the stakes—and the upside—are significant.