Hormuz tanker traffic jumps as Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 44%
Strait of Hormuz Reopens: Polymarket Odds Slide as Tanker Traffic Jumps After U.S.-Iran Deal
Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz jumped after the U.S. and Iran implemented a deal to reopen the sea lane, a shift that signaled easing operational constraints in the region. On Polymarket, the contract “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” was last priced at 44% Yes, down from 61.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 56% chance that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by Dec. 31, versus 44% for Yes.
- Odds moved lower for “Yes” as traders digested signs of a U.S.-Iran operational arrangement in Hormuz rather than a clear commitment on enrichment.
- The market resolves on 2026-12-31; the Yes price is down 17.5 percentage points from 61.5% to 44%.
At least 20 oil tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, the highest level since June 2, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler. Kpler said traffic has improved since the U.S. and Iran began reopening the sea lane to commercial shipping, though flows remain well below prewar levels when more than 100 ships, including dozens of tankers, crossed daily. The firm counted 25 total vessel transits on Thursday across classes, and described westbound and eastbound movements as broadly balanced at 13 and 12 crossings, respectively. Kpler said Iranian supertankers loaded with oil have been switching on their transponders as they depart after going dark during the war, and observed five Iranian supertankers leaving the region on Friday. Under the arrangement, Tehran is allowing ships to cross for 60 days without paying tolls, while the terms call for talks with Oman and Gulf states on how the strait will be administered after that period.
Polymarket Pricing Update: “End Enrichment by Dec. 31” Drops to 44% Yes (56% No) on $1.06M Volume
Polymarket’s “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” contract is trading at 44% Yes and 56% No, with No the leading outcome. The market has drawn about $1.06 million in volume, with pricing implying traders still lean against a deal by the resolution date despite two-way volatility. The Yes side is down 17.5 percentage points from the prior 61.5%, indicating a notable shift in positioning toward No at current levels.
The next major swing catalyst would likely be explicit language from Iran about enrichment policy and any formal timeline tied to the 2026-12-31 resolution date, alongside whether implied probabilities keep moving on rising volume.
Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Tracking
Beyond the longer-dated enrichment question, Polymarket traders are also clustering into nearer-term timelines and operational gauges that span Iran policy and shipping flows. In “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?”, the leading “No” sits at 95.5% on $10,702,659 in volume, while “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?” shows “No” at 84.5% with $588,927 traded. On the maritime side, “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” is led by “No” at 92.5% on $29,406,226, and “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” has “No” at 55.5% with $7,009,954 in volume, highlighting how positioning shifts as the horizon moves out.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +14.5 |
| 7d | +14.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 44.0%
- Volume: ~$1,062,099
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 44.0% / No 56.0%; No: Yes 44.0% / No 56.0%
Related Markets
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 96%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? — No 84%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 92%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No 56%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 76%