Indonesia Blocks Polymarket, Citing Gambling Laws
Indonesia has blocked access to Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market platform, after it allowed bets on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term. The Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) announced the decision, labeling Polymarket an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market.”
The move follows Polymarket opening wagers on May 21, 2026, allowing users to bet on Prabowo's early exit. The market recorded over $46,000 in trading volume, with odds suggesting minimal likelihood of his departure—1% by May 31, 2% by June 30, and 18% before the end of 2026. Prabowo's presidency is scheduled to run until October 2029.
Ministry official Alexander Sabar stated, “The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia. Activities like Polymarket involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, thus violating Indonesian law.” The platform has been blocked as part of broader efforts to curb online gambling, which is strictly prohibited under Indonesian law.
Prediction Markets Under Fire
Indonesia’s stance reflects an expanding global crackdown on prediction markets, which use blockchain technology to facilitate bets on real-world events. While supporters argue these platforms serve as tools for crowd-sourced forecasting, critics claim they blur the line between financial innovation and gambling. Concerns about potential insider trading and market manipulation have also fueled regulatory backlash.
Indonesia’s action isn’t isolated. The country has aggressively targeted online gambling in recent years, blocking over 3.3 million gambling-related websites between late 2024 and 2025. Authorities estimate online gambling funds tied to Indonesia reached Rp286.84 trillion (around $18 billion) in 2025. High-profile enforcement actions have continued into 2026, including the arrest of 321 foreigners in a May raid on an alleged gambling operation in Jakarta.
Polymarket, which has faced similar bans in over 30 jurisdictions, has expressed interest in pursuing regulatory approval in select markets, including Japan. However, the platform’s challenges highlight a broader issue: whether prediction markets should be regulated as financial instruments or treated as gambling.
Why It Matters
The ban underscores Indonesia’s hardline approach to digital governance. The government has steadily expanded its oversight of online platforms, enforcing stricter compliance measures and content controls. For crypto traders and prediction market participants, this raises questions about the viability of such platforms in regions with stringent regulatory regimes.
Globally, the clash between regulators and prediction market platforms is likely to intensify. While platforms like Polymarket aim to position themselves as legitimate financial tools, governments remain wary of their speculative nature. Traders should closely monitor regulatory developments, particularly in markets with a history of strict online gambling enforcement.
For now, Indonesia’s move sends a clear signal: prediction markets, regardless of their crypto underpinnings, are not exempt from traditional gambling laws.