Iran closes Hormuz again as talks restart, Polymarket Yes dips to 39.5%
Iran Re-Closes the Strait of Hormuz: Polymarket “Traffic Normal by July 31” Odds Slide to 39.5%
As U.S. and Iranian negotiators convene in Switzerland after a delay and fresh fighting in Lebanon, Tehran said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz again to vessel traffic. Polymarket traders marked down the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, pushing the contract’s Yes side to 39.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 60.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by July 31 (Yes 39.5%, No 60.5%).
- Odds fell after Iran said it would close the Strait of Hormuz again amid renewed Lebanon ceasefire tensions and the restart of U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland.
- The market resolves on July 31, 2026; the Yes odds are down 2.5 percentage points from 42.0%.
A new round of talks over the Middle East war was set to begin in Switzerland on Sunday as Iranian negotiators and U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrived in the host city. Vance said he hoped to make progress on both the nuclear issue and a ceasefire in Lebanon ahead of the discussions. Follow-up talks that had been planned for Friday were postponed after Israel launched deadly strikes in Lebanon following the deaths of four Israeli soldiers in combat. Iran’s central military command said the Strait of Hormuz would be closed to vessel traffic, citing what it described as a U.S. breach of commitments and continued violations of the ceasefire in southern Lebanon by Israel. The U.S. military said safe passage through the international waterway had remained intact and that U.S. forces were present and vigilant, while President Donald Trump warned Washington could impose tolls on Hormuz if negotiators failed to complete a deal.
Polymarket Data: $7.31M Volume as “Yes” Drops 3.5 Points in 24 Hours (No at 60.5%)
Polymarket’s “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” contract was last priced at Yes 39.5% versus No 60.5%, down from 42.0% previously. The market has matched about $7,312,355 in volume, indicating heavy interest despite the sub-40% pricing on the normalization outcome. The 24-hour move shows a 3.5 percentage point drop in the Yes side, matching the 7-day change of -3.5 points, reinforcing a bearish tilt into the July 31 resolution.
Watch for any changes to the stated status of Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic and for signals from the Switzerland negotiations that shift expectations ahead of the July 31, 2026 resolution.
Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking
Beyond the late-July horizon, Polymarket liquidity is clustering around earlier shipping and broader Iran-risk timelines. Traders are pricing 94.5% on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” (about $31,030,459 in volume) and 74.5% on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” (about $1,900,729), while longer-tail political outcomes remain heavily skewed: 99.65% on “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” (about $62,833,496) and 86.5% on “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” (about $38,518,127).
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -3.5 |
| 7d | -3.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 39.5%
- Volume: ~$7,312,355
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 39.5% / No 60.5%; No: Yes 39.5% / No 60.5%
Related Markets
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 94%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 74%
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No 100%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — No 86%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 96%