Iran Knockout Hope Faces Tight Market as Spain Tops Odds

Developments

A World Cup match-up update saw Poland advance in the tournament, with odds on the leading teams remaining tight as markets react to fresh results. Polymarket traders now focus on the contract linked to whether Iran advances to the knockout stage, shifting pricing as new outcomes surface.

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Prediction Market Reaction

Leading outcome shows Spain as the top probability at 98.4% on the contract, with Mexico at 98.3%, Brazil at 98.2%, and Germany around 96.95% to advance. Yes odds for Spain sit at 98.4% and No at 1.6%, while Mexico’s Yes stands at 98.3% and No at 1.7%; Brazil mirrors 98.2% Yes and 1.8% No, with Germany at 96.95% Yes and 3.05% No. The stack of high-probability strikes indicates concentrated positioning around teams expected to progress, with total market volume near 2.01 million USD and ongoing trading activity as settlement approaches on 2026-06-28.

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jun 28, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$2,009,925
• 24h change: +0.0 pp

Top strike rungs

+44 more strikes not shown

Related Markets

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• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — No 89%
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No 99%
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — No 56%