Iran names Taremi for NZ opener as Polymarket knockout odds hit 99.5%
Iran vs New Zealand World Cup Group G Opener: Polymarket Advance Odds Firm as Lineups Drop
Iran coach Amir Ghalenoei named captain Mehdi Taremi to lead the attack for the team’s World Cup Group G opener against New Zealand, a matchup closely watched for early signals on group-stage momentum. On Polymarket’s “World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages” contract, pricing has edged higher in recent trading as bettors position for likely qualifiers.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket’s leading outcome is Germany at 99.5% Yes (0.5% No) to advance to the knockout stages.
- The market has traded firmer, with the contract’s headline odds up to 99.5% from 97.9% previously alongside $3,600,839 in volume.
- The contract is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-28, aligning with the end of the group-stage window for advancing teams.
Iran coach Amir Ghalenoei named captain and veteran forward Mehdi Taremi to start up front for the team’s World Cup Group G opener against New Zealand on Monday. New Zealand are set to be led by captain Chris Wood, the country’s all-time top scorer. The report said Iran’s record World Cup appearance maker Ehsan Hajsafi was named on the bench. Iran’s listed lineup included Alireza Beiranvand in goal and Taremi paired with Shahriyar Moghanlou in attack, while New Zealand’s XI featured Max Crocombe in goal with Wood leading the line. The teams trained in Carson, California ahead of the match.
World Cup “Team to Advance” Market: $3,600,839 Volume as Germany Hits 99.5% Yes (Up From 97.9%)
On Polymarket, the top of the board implies near-certainty for several favorites to reach the knockout stages, led by Germany at 99.5% Yes / 0.5% No and France at 99.5% Yes / 0.5% No. The next tier shows USA at 97.6% Yes / 2.4% No and Spain at 96.9% Yes / 3.1% No, reflecting a modestly wider tail risk. Total matched volume stands at $3,600,839, and the small gap between the highest and next outcomes signals concentrated conviction rather than a closely split field.
Traders will watch how early group results shift pricing for mid-tier contenders, particularly outcomes currently clustered in the 93% to 97% Yes range, ahead of the market’s 2026-06-28 resolution date.
Beyond Group G: Other High-Conviction World Cup Advance Contracts Bettors Are Watching on Polymarket
Beyond the advance markets, Polymarket traders are also clustering around higher-level World Cup exposures, led by the $2,503,827,149 “World Cup Winner” contract where France is priced at 18.05%. Player props are drawing heavy attention too, with “World Cup: Golden Boot Winner” putting Kylian Mbappe at 29.5% on $12,119,151 in volume. Further down the card, group outrights remain active with Argentina at 71.5% in “World Cup Group J Winner” and France at 79.5% in “World Cup Group I Winner,” offering a cleaner read on early-path scenarios than outright champion pricing.
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jun 28, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$3,600,839
- 24h change: +0.0 pp
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| France | 99.5% | 0.5% |
| USA | 97.6% | 2.4% |
| Spain | 96.9% | 3.1% |
+44 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- World Cup Winner — France 18%
- World Cup: Golden Boot Winner — Kylian Mbappe 30%
- World Cup Group J Winner — Argentina 72%
- World Cup Group I Winner — France 80%
- Which continent will win the World Cup? — Europe (UEFA) 72%