Iran offers 60-day toll-free Hormuz passage as Polymarket sees 56.5% normalcy
Iran’s 60-Day Toll-Free Strait of Hormuz Plan Moves Polymarket “Traffic Returns to Normal by July 31” Odds to 56.5%
Senior U.S. officials said Iran will allow toll-free passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days under terms tied to an agreement to end the Middle East war, with follow-on talks planned on the strait’s administration. The update comes as Polymarket traders price a 56.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket implies a 56.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31 (Yes 56.5% vs No 43.5%).
- Odds edged down from 57.5% previously as traders weighed details of a 60-day toll-free passage period and longer-term governance talks.
- The contract is set to resolve on 2026-07-31, with odds down 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Senior U.S. officials said Iran, Oman and other Gulf states will discuss how the Strait of Hormuz is administered after an initial 60-day period in which Iran would allow commercial ships to pass safely without tolls. The officials said Washington and Tehran are expected to formally sign a memorandum of understanding on Friday in Geneva to end the war, and they described its terms on a conference call. Under the outline they read, the United States would begin lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports immediately after signing and would end the blockade within 30 days. The officials said ships transited Hormuz freely before the war, but Iran has sought to impose control since fighting began after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on Feb. 28. They cited data showing traffic remained far below pre-war levels, including 13 commercial ships—six of them tankers—transiting on Tuesday compared with more than 100 vessels a day before the war, while a maritime security center downgraded the threat level to “substantial” from “severe.”
Polymarket Data: $6.31M Matched Volume as “Yes” Slips to 56.5% (No 43.5%), Down 3.5 Points in 24 Hours
On Polymarket, the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” market last priced Yes at 56.5% and No at 43.5%, down 1.0 percentage point from 57.5% previously. Matched volume stood at $6,308,787, indicating active two-sided positioning rather than a one-way rush into either outcome. Over the past 24 hours, the market is down 3.5 points, leaving the latest price below the 58.7% average of the last five observations in the dataset.
Traders will watch for confirmation and implementation timing around the memorandum of understanding, any milestones on lifting the naval blockade within 30 days, and early signals from the planned Oman-led talks on future administration and maritime services in Hormuz ahead of the July 31 resolution date.
Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond the late-July benchmark, traders are also crowding into shorter-dated shipping timelines, with “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” implying an 85.5% lead for No on $26,558,351 in volume and “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” showing No at 63.5% on $1,020,770. The focus broadens to diplomacy and nuclear-related signaling, where “Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?” points to Switzerland at 71.45% with $13,417,029 matched, while “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” has No leading at 57.5% on $5,601,668.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -3.5 |
| 7d | -3.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 56.5%
- Volume: ~$6,308,787
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 56.5% / No 43.5%; No: Yes 56.5% / No 43.5%
Related Markets
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 86%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 64%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 58%
- Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen? — Switzerland 71%
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? — Yes 59%