Iran re-closes Hormuz as Polymarket Yes odds tick up to 2.55%
Strait of Hormuz Reopens Then Re-Closes: Polymarket Keeps “Unrestricted Shipping by June 30” at Long Odds
A fresh U.S.-Iran dispute over access to the Strait of Hormuz is keeping the outlook for “unrestricted shipping” highly uncertain, even after the two sides signed an understanding aimed at reopening the waterway. On Polymarket, the contract “Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?” still prices a low chance of a Yes outcome despite a recent uptick.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket implies a 97.45% chance of “No” and 2.55% for “Yes” on Iran agreeing to unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30.
- Odds moved higher for “Yes” (to 2.55% from 1.3%), but traders still heavily favor “No” amid conflicting signals over whether the strait is truly open.
- The market resolves on June 30, 2026, and has traded about $1.30 million in volume so far.
Days after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Iran said the waterway had been closed again, raising concerns about oil flows after they had only started to rebound. Iran’s military command cited continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon and what it called U.S. bad faith in failing to uphold commitments to end the war, while warning that further steps had been planned if the aggression continued. President Donald Trump, in turn, threatened to impose U.S. tolls for “services rendered” if a final deal with Iran is not reached within 60 days. U.S. Central Command said safe passage through the strait remained intact and reported 55 merchant ships carrying cargo and 17 million barrels of oil transiting on Saturday, adding that a southern route along Oman’s coast was described as safe in an advisory. Iran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority said ships must follow a regime-established route along the Iranian coast and said alternatives are prohibited, while also requiring insurance that is currently free but may later carry fees.
Polymarket Pricing: “Yes” at 2.55% vs “No” at 97.45% as Volume Tops $1.30M Ahead of the June 30, 2026 Resolution
Polymarket’s “Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?” is priced at 2.55% Yes and 97.45% No, indicating traders see the agreement as unlikely by the deadline. The Yes side has risen from 1.3% previously, but positioning remains overwhelmingly on No. Total traded volume stands at $1,302,354, suggesting the market has attracted substantial liquidity even with a lopsided probability split.
Watch for any further moves in the Yes price around the June 30, 2026 resolution date as volume builds and traders react to shifts in perceived enforceability of shipping access.
Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond the headline contract, Polymarket traders are clustering into adjacent bets that map out the timeline for normalization and broader tail risks. “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” leads with No at 94.5% on $31,030,459 in volume, while “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” is also skewed to No at 60.5% with $7,312,355 traded. Further out on regime and conflict scenarios, “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” is priced at No 99.65% on $62,833,496, and “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” sits at No 86.5% with $38,518,127 in volume.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -2.5 |
| 7d | -2.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
- Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 2.5%
- Volume: ~$1,302,354
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 2.5% / No 97.5%; No: Yes 2.5% / No 97.5%
Related Markets
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 94%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 74%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No 60%
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No 100%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — No 86%