Israeli poll boosts Iran regime-fall odds to 35% on Polymarket
Israeli Poll Boosts Polymarket “Iranian Regime Fall by June 30” Odds to 35% From 25%
A new Israeli public opinion poll showing overwhelming belief that Iran emerged stronger from the Middle East war and a subsequent US-Iran deal comes as Polymarket traders have marked up the contract on whether the Iranian regime will fall by June 30. On Polymarket, the "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?" market moved to 35% from 25%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 35% chance of a "Yes" outcome, while the leading outcome remains "No" at 99.65%.
- The odds rose 10 percentage points after a poll found Israelis overwhelmingly believe Iran gained more from the war and the US-Iran deal.
- The contract is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2026, with the price up from 25% previously.
A poll released on June 21 found Israelis overwhelmingly believe Iran emerged stronger from the Middle East war and the subsequent deal with the United States. The survey of 3,644 respondents, conducted between June 17 and June 20 by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in collaboration with the Agam Institute, reported that 92.1% said Iran had won or gained more from the conflict. Another 82.9% said Israel's long-term security had been weakened, and the view that Iran had won was also prevalent among supporters of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing bloc. The poll showed broad opposition to the US-Iran agreement, with 63.2% opposed versus 12.1% supportive, and nearly three-quarters said they did not believe Netanyahu's claims about the campaign's achievements. It also found support for Netanyahu's premiership fell from 40.5% in early March to 29.4% in June, while nearly half backed renewed major military action against Hezbollah in Lebanon even if it risked confrontation with Washington.
Polymarket Liquidity Check: $62.95M Volume as “Yes” Trades at 35% and “No” Leads at 99.65%
On Polymarket, the "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?" contract was last priced at 35% for Yes, up from 25% previously, a 10-point move higher. Trading volume stood at about $62.95 million, pointing to heavy liquidity despite a low-volatility historical profile. The market’s displayed leader remains "No" at 99.65%, signaling that positioning is still heavily skewed toward regime survival even after the repricing. The contract is active and set to resolve on June 30, 2026.
Traders will watch for further large swings in the Yes price into the June 30, 2026 resolution date as volume remains elevated.
Beyond Iran: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond the headline contract, Polymarket activity has clustered around related flashpoints with traders leaning heavily toward disruption persisting in key chokepoints: 94.5% “No” in “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” on $31.3 million in volume, alongside 71.5% “No” in the July 15 version and 55.5% “No” by July 31. Elsewhere, positioning is similarly skeptical in 95.4% “No” for “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” and 86.5% “No” in “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?”, underscoring how traders are spreading risk across both near-term operational signals and longer-dated escalation scenarios.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -2.0 |
| 7d | -2.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 0.3%
- Volume: ~$62,949,775
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 0.3% / No 99.7%; No: Yes 0.3% / No 99.7%
Related Markets
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 94%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 72%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No 56%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 95%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — No 86%