Lebanon strikes and Trump jab reprice Israel PM market, Eizenkot at 39.1%
Israel–Lebanon Strikes and Trump’s Netanyahu Rebuke Push Gadi Eizenkot to 39.1% in Next Israel PM Market
Israel’s fresh strikes in southern Lebanon and renewed public criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by U.S. President Donald Trump are rippling into Israeli politics, pushing traders to reprice the Polymarket market on who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election. On Polymarket, Gadi Eizenkot led at 39.1%, up from 35.95%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the leading next Israel prime minister pick at 39.1%, ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu at 32.5%.
- The odds moved higher after reports of new Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon and Trump’s public criticism of Netanyahu’s conduct there.
- The contract is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31, with the lead up 3.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Israeli forces carried out new strikes in southern Lebanon, according to state media reports, even as U.S. President Donald Trump renewed criticism of Israel’s actions in the country. Lebanon’s National News Agency reported drone strikes that injured several people in Mansouri and Aaziyyeh on Wednesday, while jets attacked Nabatieh al-Fawqa and Kfar Tebnit. Israel’s military did not comment on the reported strikes, but said five soldiers were injured in a drone attack in Lebanon by Hezbollah. Trump said at the G7 summit in France that Israel’s prime minister needed to be more responsible regarding Lebanon, adding that Israel had been fighting Hezbollah for too long and too many people were being killed. Netanyahu said Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon for as long as necessary, as attacks between Israel and Hezbollah continued after a U.S.-Iran agreement announced on Sunday night.
Polymarket Data: $17,998,575 Volume as Eizenkot Jumps +3.6 Points; Netanyahu Holds 32.5%
Polymarket shows $17,998,575 in volume on the multi-outcome market for the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election, with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 39.1% Yes / 60.9% No. Benjamin Netanyahu is priced at 32.5% Yes / 67.5% No, while Naftali Bennett is at 16.0% Yes / 84.0% No. Farther down the board, Avigdor Lieberman trades at 4.5% Yes / 95.5% No and Itamar Ben Gvir at 2.05% Yes / 97.95% No, indicating traders see a steep drop-off beyond the top two names. The latest move leaves Eizenkot’s implied probability up 3.15 percentage points from 35.95%, with the market’s 24-hour change at +3.6 points.
Traders will watch for further shifts in pricing between Eizenkot and Netanyahu, and whether volume continues to concentrate in the top two outcomes as the market approaches its 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Beyond Israel’s Next PM: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond leadership bets, Polymarket traders are also clustering around event-driven Israel-linked contracts that gauge how the situation could evolve on the ground and in markets. In “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?”, the leading outcome is July 31 at 14.5% with $3,830,689 in volume, while “Israel closes its airspace by June 30?” is priced heavily toward No at 94.65% on $3,168,206 in volume—moves that underscore how participants are pairing political forecasts with operational risk scenarios.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +3.6 |
| 7d | +3.6 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$17,998,575
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 32.5% | 67.5% |
| Naftali Bennett | 16.0% | 84.0% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 4.5% | 95.5% |
+14 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? — July 31 14%
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30? — No 95%