Makerfield by-election heats up as Polymarket holds Bardella at 25.5%
UK Makerfield By-Election Heats Up, but Polymarket Keeps Jordan Bardella Leading France 2027 at 25.5%
Campaigning intensified ahead of the Makerfield by-election in the UK, a contest framed as a potential trigger for a Labour leadership challenge. On Polymarket’s “Next French Presidential Election” market, pricing was unchanged, with Jordan Bardella still the top-listed outcome at 25.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella as the leading winner of the 2027 French presidential election at 25.5%.
- The odds were flat at 25.5% even as UK political headlines focused on the Makerfield by-election and potential leadership dynamics.
- The market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-04-30, with the leading price up 2.0 points over the past 24 hours.
Candidates made their final appeal to voters ahead of Thursday’s Makerfield by-election, a race portrayed as carrying wider consequences for the UK’s political leadership. Labour’s candidate, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, is expected to mount a challenge to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership if he returns to Parliament by winning the seat. Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, a plumber and local councillor, was second in the constituency at the 2024 general election, and the limited polling conducted so far has suggested Burnham leading but with a tight contest. The campaign has drawn national attention, with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage canvassing locally as the four-week race reaches its final stages. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of the previous MP, and a wider field including a new party, Restore Britain, is also contesting the seat alongside the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats.
Polymarket Data: $102,059,382 Volume as Bardella Holds 25.5%, Philippe 19.5%, Mélenchon 9.5%, Le Pen 7.5%
On Polymarket, the “Next French Presidential Election” contract traded with $102,059,382 in volume and showed no change in the leader’s price, leaving Jordan Bardella at 25.5% Yes / 74.5% No. Édouard Philippe was priced at 19.5% Yes / 80.5% No, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon stood at 9.5% Yes / 90.5% No and Marine Le Pen at 7.5% Yes / 92.5% No. The rest of the listed field was priced in low single digits, including Dominique de Villepin at 3.7% Yes / 96.3% No and Gabriel Attal at 3.25% Yes / 96.75% No, indicating a relatively dispersed but leader-led book.
Traders will watch for new France-specific political signals that could re-rank the top contenders ahead of the market’s 2027-04-30 resolution date.
Beyond France 2027: Other High-Interest UK Political Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Now
Elsewhere on Polymarket, traders are also rotating into a slate of high-liquidity political contracts that span the US and Latin America. The Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 market shows Gavin Newsom leading at 24.25% on $1,203,183,466 in volume, while Brazil Presidential Election has Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 49.5% with $101,485,732 traded. In more lopsided pricing, Colombia Presidential Election has Abelardo de la Espriella at 89.5% on $37,610,934, and the UK-specific Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? is priced at 99.45% for “No” with $5,236,876 in volume.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.0 |
| 7d | +2.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Next French Presidential Election
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Apr 30, 2027 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$102,059,382
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bardella | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Édouard Philippe | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 9.5% | 90.5% |
| Marine Le Pen | 7.5% | 92.5% |
+32 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 24%
- Brazil Presidential Election — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 50%
- Colombia Presidential Election — Abelardo de la Espriella 90%
- Peru Election 2nd Round: Margin of Victory? (0.1% brackets) — Fujimori 0.2–0.3% 92%
- Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? — No 99%