Netanyahu warns on Turkey F-35s as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 40%

Netanyahu Warns Against U.S. F-35 Sale to Turkey as Polymarket Lifts Gadi Eizenkot’s Next Israel PM Odds

Benjamin Netanyahu sharpened his public criticism of a potential U.S. sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey in comments to CNN, framing Ankara as an unreliable partner and warning of a regional power shift. Polymarket traders nudged higher the odds in the contract “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”, with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 39.95%.

Key Takeaways

Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the top pick at 39.95% to be Israel’s next prime minister after the next election.
Traders slightly lifted Eizenkot’s implied odds by 0.85 percentage points as Netanyahu stayed in the headlines on foreign policy and security issues.
The market is set to resolve by 2026-12-31, and the contract’s implied odds are up 2.05 percentage points over the past 24 hours.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNN he had raised concerns with U.S. President Donald Trump about the possibility of Washington selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, saying such a move could disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East. He argued that Turkey should not be viewed as a “friendly state” to the United States, citing Ankara’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s support for Hamas, and Turkey’s record on imprisoning political opponents and journalists. Netanyahu said Erdogan has threatened NATO allies and has repeatedly threatened Israel, and he described Turkey as having aggressive ambitions, including claims about restoring the Ottoman Empire. He also said the U.S. and Israel remain close allies even when they disagree, and said both leaders aligned on giving Iran a chance to address its nuclear program through negotiations while insisting Israel would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. In the same interview, Netanyahu condemned Jewish settler violence in the West Bank as a violation of basic norms and said incidents would be investigated, rejecting vigilantism regardless of who carries it out.

Polymarket Data: $26.25M Volume as Eizenkot Leads at 39.95% vs Netanyahu at 36.5% (Resolution 2026-12-31)

On Polymarket, the multi-outcome market has about $26.25 million in volume, with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 39.95% Yes (60.05% No) versus Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5% Yes (63.5% No). The next tier is priced much lower, with Naftali Bennett at 12.5% Yes (87.5% No) and Avigdor Lieberman at 3.35% Yes (96.65% No), signaling a two-way race in current positioning. The latest move shows Eizenkot up to 39.95% from 39.1%, while the broader tape indicates a 24-hour change of +2.05 percentage points for the tracked odds series. With resolution set for 2026-12-31, the pricing suggests traders are concentrated in the top two outcomes while assigning long-shot probabilities to the rest of the field.

Watch whether Polymarket’s spread between Gadi Eizenkot (39.95%) and Benjamin Netanyahu (36.5%) widens or tightens, and whether volume above $26.25 million accelerates into a clearer two-candidate market.

Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching

Beyond Israel’s leadership odds, Polymarket traders are also keeping a close eye on faster-moving regional risk gauges, including 92.25% “No” on “Israel closes its airspace by July 15?” with $1,062,143 in volume. The contract sits alongside a broader slate of high-turnover geopolitical and macro markets that participants use to hedge headline-driven volatility across the region and beyond.

Odds Trend

Window	Change (pp)
24h	+2.0
7d	+2.0

By the Numbers

Platform: Polymarket
Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
Status: Active (open for trading)
Volume: ~$26,251,121

Top strike rungs

Strike	Yes	No
Gadi Eizenkot	40.0%	60.0%
Benjamin Netanyahu	36.5%	63.5%
Naftali Bennett	12.5%	87.5%
Avigdor Lieberman	3.4%	96.7%

+14 more strikes not shown