OG Bitcoin selling hits 2-year low as Polymarket prices 99.95% over $54K
Bitcoin OG Holders Slash Selling as Polymarket Prices Bitcoin Above $54,000 on June 25, 2026 at 99.95%
Bitcoin’s “OG” holders have sharply reduced selling, a shift some analysts frame as easing sell-side pressure as BTC trades around the low-$60,000s. On Polymarket’s “Bitcoin above ___ on June 25?” ladder, traders are pricing a near-certain chance that Bitcoin finishes above the lowest strikes by the June 25, 2026 resolution window.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket implies a 99.95% chance Bitcoin is above $54,000 on June 25 (Yes 99.95%, No 0.05%).
- Traders are leaning to the upside across lower strikes as on-chain data shows long-term “OG” holders have cut selling to the lowest level in nearly two years.
- The market resolves on June 25, 2026 at 16:00 UTC, with odds broadly stable over the past 24 hours and seven days (0.0 points each).
Bitcoin “OGs,” defined as investors who have held coins for at least five years, have reduced their selling activity to the lowest levels in nearly two years, according to on-chain spent-transaction data cited by CryptoQuant. The 90-day moving average of coins spent by these long-term holders has fallen to 962 BTC, the lowest reading since November 2024. CryptoQuant said the intense profit-taking waves seen during 2024 and 2025 have been fading, and it pointed to prior peaks in May 2024, February 2025, and September 2025 when large holders moved coins as prices surged. During the earlier cycle, single-day sell-offs sometimes exceeded 142,000 BTC, but the current pattern shows a marked lull. Analysts also tied the slowdown to bitcoin trading around $63,000, which they described as a potential break-even level for the most expensive coins this cohort could have bought five years ago, and noted that spot ETF outflows have slowed over the past two weeks.
Polymarket Ladder Volume Hits $434,565: Odds at $60K (95.55%), $62K (71.5%), $64K (17.5%), $66K (1.75%)
Polymarket shows $434,565 in matched volume on the “Bitcoin above ___ on June 25?” ladder, with pricing concentrated in high-certainty lower strikes and steeply discounted probabilities at higher levels. The $60,000 strike is priced at Yes 95.55% / No 4.45%, while the $62,000 strike drops to Yes 71.5% / No 28.5%, signaling a more contested zone around that level. Above that, odds thin quickly: $64,000 is Yes 17.5% / No 82.5% and $66,000 is Yes 1.75% / No 98.25%. Tail outcomes are priced as remote, with $70,000 at Yes 0.05% / No 99.95%, reflecting limited conviction that Bitcoin clears the upper strikes by the June 25 cutoff.
Watch whether pricing tightens around the $62,000 strike ahead of the June 25, 2026 16:00 UTC resolution, as that level currently marks the sharpest step-down in implied probabilities.
Beyond Bitcoin: Other High-Volume Polymarket Markets Traders Are Watching Right Now
Beyond the June cutoff ladder, traders are also piling into broader monthly targets, with “What price will Bitcoin hit in June?” showing $24,961,963 in volume and a 100.0% lean toward “↓ 70,000,” alongside “What price will Ethereum hit in June?” at $5,731,801 and 100.0% on “↓ 1,900.” Longer-dated upside is being priced far more cautiously in “When will Bitcoin hit $150k?”, where “by December 31, 2026” sits at 4.55% on just $150 in matched volume. Elsewhere on the platform, risk appetite is spilling into adjacent crypto beta via “What price will Solana hit in June?” ($2,085,016; 100.0% “↑ 80”) and into event-driven markets like “Tunisia vs. Netherlands,” where the Netherlands is at 87.5% with $1,423,197 traded.
Odds Trend
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Bitcoin above ___ on June 25?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jun 25, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$434,565
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 54,000 | 100.0% | 0.1% |
| 52,000 | 100.0% | 0.1% |
| 56,000 | 99.9% | 0.1% |
| 58,000 | 99.2% | 0.8% |
+7 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- What price will Bitcoin hit in June? — ↓ 70,000 100%
- What price will Ethereum hit in June? — ↓ 1,900 100%
- When will Bitcoin hit $150k? — by December 31, 2026 5%
- What price will Solana hit in June? — ↑ 80 100%
- Tunisia vs. Netherlands — Netherlands 88%