Oil flows persist despite Iran claims, Polymarket sees 51.5% odds of normal
Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Continue Despite Iran Closure Claims as Polymarket “Traffic Returns to Normal by July 31” Jum
Oil shipments continued moving through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend despite Iran claiming the waterway had been closed again, with ship-tracking and U.S. military statements pointing to ongoing transit. The Polymarket contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” was last priced at 51.5% for Yes, up 9.5 percentage points from 42.0%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket implies a 51.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31 (Yes 51.5%, No 48.5%).
- The contract moved higher as reports described continued oil flows through Hormuz despite competing claims about a shutdown.
- The market resolves on 2026-07-31, with the latest odds up 9.5 points versus the prior 42.0% reading.
Millions of barrels of oil continued to move through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend even after Iran said it had closed the waterway again, according to ship-tracking cited in the report. Three laden oil supertankers with a combined capacity of about 6 million barrels were observed transiting via a route that hugs Oman’s coast, and one later resumed automated signals after reaching the Gulf of Oman. The report said one vessel, Gulf Sunrise, was carrying about 2 million barrels of Saudi crude bound for Japan, while other ships loaded with Emirati crude were also tracked near the strait. U.S. Central Command said 17 million barrels had passed through Hormuz on Saturday, contradicting reports in Iranian media that the strait was closed. The report also said peace talks were set to take place on Sunday in Switzerland, with senior officials including U.S. Vice President JD Vance expected to attend.
Polymarket Odds Shift: Yes 51.5% (+9.5 Points) with $7.67M Volume in Strait of Hormuz Normalization Market
Polymarket’s Yes side traded at 51.5% versus 48.5% for No, a 9.5-point jump from the previous 42.0% reading. Cumulative volume stood at $7,669,209, indicating heavy two-sided positioning around a near coin-flip outcome. With pricing clustered near 50/50, liquidity appears to be keeping the contract tightly balanced rather than reflecting a decisive consensus.
The contract is scheduled to resolve on 2026-07-31; pricing near the midpoint suggests traders will key off any measurable normalization signals before that date.
Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond the July 31 benchmark, traders are also crowding into shorter-dated variants, with 93.5% on No in “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” on $31,472,224 in volume and 68.5% on No in “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” on $2,153,773. On the diplomatic and political spillover, “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?” shows 25.5% for the leading “August 31” outcome on $747,823, while “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” prices No at 96.15% on $11,427,085. Elsewhere, the highest-volume tail-risk wager remains “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?”, with No at 99.75% on $62,981,641.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -3.5 |
| 7d | -3.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 51.5%
- Volume: ~$7,669,209
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 51.5% / No 48.5%; No: Yes 51.5% / No 48.5%
Related Markets
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 94%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 68%
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — August 31 26%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 96%
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No 100%