Scotland by-elections set stage as Polymarket keeps Bardella at 25.5%
Scotland Westminster By-Elections Overnight Count: Polymarket’s 2027 French Election Favorite Jordan Bardella Holds at 2
Voters in Scotland went to the polls in two Westminster by-elections on the country’s east coast, with results expected in the early hours of Friday. On Polymarket’s “Next French Presidential Election” contract, pricing was flat, with Jordan Bardella remaining the leading outcome at 25.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella as the top pick to win the 2027 French presidential election at 25.5%.
- The Scotland by-elections ran alongside an unchanged Polymarket leader board, leaving the Bardella line steady despite heavy turnover in the market.
- The contract is set to resolve by 2027-04-30, while the latest implied odds show a 2.0 percentage-point move over both 24 hours and 7 days.
Voters in Scotland are casting ballots in two Westminster by-elections on the east coast, in Aberdeen South and in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. The contests were triggered after SNP MPs Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins, elected at the 2024 general election, resigned their seats to take up places at Holyrood last month. Rivals are aiming to overturn Flynn’s majority of almost 4,000 votes in Aberdeen South and Gethins’ majority of about 900 votes in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. Polls are open from 07:00 to 22:00, and voters must show photo ID at polling stations. Counting is set to take place overnight, with results expected in the early hours of Friday.
“Next French Presidential Election” Polymarket Sees $102.4M Volume as Bardella Leads Philippe 25.5% to 19.5%
On Polymarket, the “Next French Presidential Election” market has drawn about $102.4 million in volume, with the top line steady at 25.5% for Jordan Bardella (Yes 25.5% / No 74.5%). The next tier prices Edouard Philippe at 19.5% (Yes 19.5% / No 80.5%), followed by Jean-Luc Melenchon at 9.5% (Yes 9.5% / No 90.5%) and Marine Le Pen at 7.5% (Yes 7.5% / No 92.5%). The spread from the leader to the second choice suggests traders are assigning a clear edge to Bardella, while still leaving substantial probability distributed across the field.
Watch for overnight by-election results and any subsequent shifts in the Polymarket leader board, particularly whether the top outcome moves away from the mid-20% range or the gap between the top two contracts narrows.
Beyond the UK Ballot Box: Other High-Volume Polymarket Politics and Macro Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond the UK’s local contests, Polymarket traders are also clustering around higher-volume political and macro-style wagers abroad. In the “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028” contract, Gavin Newsom leads at 23.85% amid $1,206,149,599 in volume, while Brazil’s “Brazil Presidential Election” market prices Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 50.5% on $101,660,734. Elsewhere, “Colombia Presidential Election” implies Abelardo de la Espriella at 88.5% with $37,748,213 traded, and the niche UK line “Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?” is priced at 99.95% for No, after an 80.45 percentage-point swing.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.0 |
| 7d | +2.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Next French Presidential Election
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Apr 30, 2027 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$102,385,154
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bardella | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Édouard Philippe | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 9.5% | 90.5% |
| Marine Le Pen | 7.5% | 92.5% |
+32 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 24%
- Brazil Presidential Election — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 50%
- Colombia Presidential Election — Abelardo de la Espriella 88%
- Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? — No 100%