Stokes set for 3rd Test return as Polymarket puts 5+ World Cup misses at 61%

England Squad Update: Ben Stokes Set to Return as Polymarket’s “5+ Missed Penalties” Odds Slip to 60.85%

England captain Ben Stokes is expected to return for the third Test against New Zealand after an ECB disciplinary hearing, a team update that landed as Polymarket traders continued to price the 2026 World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties ladder with “5+ missed penalties” as the leading line. The “5+ missed penalties” rung was last at 60.85% implied probability, down from 65.10%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices “5+ missed penalties” as the leading outcome at 60.85% implied probability.
• The contract repriced lower from 65.10% to 60.85% while $286,497 in volume traded on the missed-penalties ladder.
• The market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-20T03:59:00+00:00, with the 24-hour and 7-day move both at +6.35 points.

England captain Ben Stokes and fast bowler Gus Atkinson have been included in England’s squad for the third Test against New Zealand at Trent Bridge after the conclusion of an ECB disciplinary hearing, according to the board. Both players were suspended from the second Test after a curfew breach at a London nightclub and were reportedly present when a member of England’s security staff was involved in an incident with a Saracens rugby player after England’s first-Test win. The ECB said Stokes and Atkinson breached contractual obligations on conduct and issued written warnings, while adding they were not blamed for violence; it said Stokes was not present during the violent conduct and Atkinson was attacked but did not retaliate. Stokes missed the second match as New Zealand levelled the series with a 253-run victory at The Oval, with Joe Root deputising as captain and reaching 14,000 Test runs. The third Test begins June 25 in Nottingham.

World Cup Missed Penalties Ladder Sees $286,497 Volume as “5+” Drops from 65.10% to 60.85%

On Polymarket’s “World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties” ladder, the leading rung “5+ missed penalties” implies 60.85% Yes versus 39.15% No, with total volume at $286,497. Higher thresholds are priced as long shots: “10+ missed penalties” is 6.00% Yes / 94.00% No, while “20+ missed penalties” is 1.40% Yes / 98.60% No. At the far end, “35+ missed penalties” sits at 0.90% Yes / 99.10% No and “45+ missed penalties” at 0.65% Yes / 99.35% No, showing traders heavily concentrated in the lower missed-penalty bands rather than tail outcomes.

Traders will track whether the ladder’s mid-range rungs tighten or stay pinned near single-digit Yes odds as liquidity builds ahead of the 2026-07-20T03:59:00+00:00 resolution date.

Beyond the World Cup: Other High-Volume Sports and Geopolitical Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Tracking

Beyond the missed-penalties ladder, Polymarket traders are also clustering in big-picture World Cup contracts where liquidity is deepest, led by the $2,907,116,852 "World Cup Winner" market with France on top at 19.75%. In player props, "World Cup: Golden Boot Winner" has Kylian Mbappe leading at 25.5% with $25,834,656 traded. Group-stage positioning is drawing its own flow too, with Egypt priced at 64.5% in "World Cup Group G Winner" ($808,319 volume) and Spain at 86.5% in "World Cup Group H Winner" ($871,720 volume).

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Jul 20, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$286,497

Top strike rungs

+6 more strikes not shown

Related Markets

• World Cup Winner — France 20%
• World Cup: Golden Boot Winner — Kylian Mbappe 26%
• World Cup Group G Winner — Egypt 64%
• World Cup Group H Winner — Spain 86%
• World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages — Mexico 100%

Sources

• CNA: England expect Stokes return for third test, says McCullum

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