Supreme Court rebuff hits Trump as Polymarket holds RFK Jr. at 49%
Supreme Court Rejects Trump Appeal in E. Jean Carroll Case, Polymarket’s 2028 GOP Nominee Odds Hold Steady
The U.S. Supreme Court has rejected Donald Trump’s bid to overturn a $5 million E. Jean Carroll verdict, a legal headline that intersects with long-dated political prediction markets. On Polymarket’s “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” contract, pricing was unchanged at the last snapshot, with the leading line holding steady.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the top choice for the 2028 Republican nomination at 49% (Yes 49% / No 51%).
- Traders kept odds flat in the latest snapshot even as the Supreme Court rejected Donald Trump’s effort to toss the $5 million E. Jean Carroll verdict.
- The contract resolves on Nov. 7, 2028, and the market showed 0.0 percentage-point change over both 24 hours and seven days.
The U.S. Supreme Court rejected Donald Trump’s effort to set aside a $5 million verdict in the E. Jean Carroll case. The action leaves the civil judgment intact after Trump sought to have it tossed. The ruling is the latest legal setback for Trump tied to Carroll’s claims. The dispute has been closely watched as it intersects with Trump’s political standing. The decision did not alter the amount cited in the verdict, which stands at $5 million.
Polymarket Data: $665.9M Volume as RFK Jr. Leads 2028 GOP Nomination at 49% With 0.0-Point Move
On Polymarket, the “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” market showed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading at Yes 49% versus No 51%, with total volume at $665,861,668. J.D. Vance was next at Yes 37.75% / No 62.25%, while Marco Rubio traded at Yes 21.85% / No 78.15%. Longer-shot pricing remained steep: Tucker Carlson sat at Yes 4.45% / No 95.55% and Donald Trump at Yes 1.95% / No 98.05%. The platform snapshot showed the market flat, with a 0.0 percentage-point move and low volatility signals in the available history.
Polymarket traders will be watching for any subsequent court activity or political announcements that could shift positioning in the 2028 Republican nomination field ahead of the Nov. 7, 2028 resolution date.
Beyond the 2028 GOP Field: Other High-Volume Political and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond the 2028 nomination chatter, liquidity on Polymarket continues to cluster around broader power and macro risk questions that can reprice quickly on fresh headlines. In global politics, “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” implies a 91.5% chance for Starmer - UK PM on $7,075,996 in volume. Closer to the U.S. election cycle, “Presidential Election Winner 2028” has JD Vance leading at 19.45% with $641,137,919 traded, underscoring how traders are also positioning on the general-election map rather than just the party field.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +0.0 |
| 7d | +0.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$665,861,668
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| J.D. Vance | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Marco Rubio | 21.9% | 78.2% |
| Tucker Carlson | 4.5% | 95.5% |
+32 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) — Starmer - UK PM 92%
- Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 19%