Trump AI export order jolts Polymarket, Starmer exit odds jump to 84.5%
Trump Export Control Order Forces Anthropic to Pull Fable 5 and Mythos 5 as Polymarket “Starmer Out Before 2027” Jumps t
An export control order from the Trump administration that pushed Anthropic to take two new AI models offline has fueled fresh debate over U.S. AI policy and digital sovereignty. On Polymarket’s “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” contract, the leading outcome shifted higher, with traders concentrating on “Starmer - UK PM” at 84.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices “Starmer - UK PM” as the next listed leader out before 2027 at 84.5% (No 15.5%).
- The repricing followed news of a Trump administration export control order that led Anthropic to pull two new AI models offline amid national security concerns.
- The contract resolves by 2026-12-31, and the leading outcome is up 15.0 percentage points over both the past 24 hours and 7 days.
Anthropic took its two newest AI models offline after an export control order from the Trump administration, triggering debate over AI policy and digital sovereignty. The order cited national security concerns, but the report behind the move was not made public and included no specific details, according to discussion on a recent podcast episode. Anthropic pulled the models—named Fable 5 and Mythos 5—saying it could not reliably ensure they could not be used by foreign nationals, including because many employees are foreign. The episode also discussed reporting that Amazon researchers allegedly found a way to bypass Fable 5 guardrails, and that Amazon CEO Andy Jassy raised those concerns with the White House. Cybersecurity experts were described as signing an open letter urging Trump to revoke the order, arguing it could be dangerous to remove advanced cybersecurity capabilities from U.S. network defenders.
Polymarket Data: $3.29M Volume as “Starmer - UK PM” Rises 15 Points to 84.5% (Petro 12.5%)
Polymarket volume on “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” stood at $3,293,384 as the top line moved to 84.5% from 74.5%. In the multi-outcome book, “Starmer - UK PM” led at 84.5% Yes versus 15.5% No, while “Petro - Colombia President” traded at 12.5% Yes and 87.5% No. The long tail remained thin, with “Díaz-Canel - Cuba President” at 1.2% Yes/98.8% No and “Abbas - President of Palestine” at 1.0% Yes/99.0% No. The pricing indicates traders are heavily skewed toward Starmer as the single most likely next exit among the listed leaders ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Watch whether the market continues to concentrate in the leading outcome or rotates into secondary names; any sustained move would likely show up first in shifts between “Starmer - UK PM” and “Petro - Colombia President” given their current gap (84.5% vs 12.5%) and the contract’s 2026-12-31 resolution deadline.
Beyond AI Policy: Other High-Interest “Leader Out Before 2027” Contracts Traders Are Watching on Polymarket
Beyond leadership-risk pricing, traders are also clustering into a handful of heavily watched geopolitical and U.S. election contracts. In “What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?”, Troop Withdrawal is priced at 100% on $12,048,447 in volume, while “Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?” similarly has Masoud Pezeshkian at 100% on $1,471,418. On the U.S. political calendar, “Presidential Election Winner 2028” shows JD Vance leading at 20.55% with $636,066,228 traded, and “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% on $663,103,724.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +15.0 |
| 7d | +15.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$3,293,384
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Starmer - UK PM | 84.5% | 15.5% |
| Petro - Colombia President | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 1.2% | 98.8% |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 1.0% | 99.0% |
+20 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? — Troop Withdrawal 100%
- Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 21%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49%
- Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? — Masoud Pezeshkian 100%