Trump eases Anthropic security fears as Polymarket odds slip to 94.7%
Trump Drops Anthropic “National Security Threat” Label as Polymarket Odds Slip to 94.7%
President Donald Trump said he no longer views Anthropic as a national security threat, easing near-term fears about restrictions on access to the company’s most advanced AI systems. Polymarket traders still price Anthropic as the clear favorite in the “Which company has best AI model end of June?” market, even after a small dip in its implied odds.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Anthropic as the leader at 94.7% (Yes 94.7% / No 5.3%), ahead of Google at 3.65% and OpenAI at 2.0%.
- Traders nudged Anthropic lower from 96.2% to 94.7% even as Trump signaled reduced national-security concern about the company.
- The contract resolves on June 30, 2026, and the market has traded about $16,057,153 in volume.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he no longer views artificial intelligence company Anthropic as a national security threat, according to an interview published Friday. Trump said he may have seen the company, or its CEO Dario Amodei, as a threat a week earlier, but not now. The interview followed a dispute over foreign access to Anthropic’s most advanced AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, after Trump ordered the company to block foreign nationals from accessing them. Anthropic disabled access for all users to those models last week, and senior technical staff were scheduled to meet Trump administration officials earlier this week to discuss the matter. Trump also said he did not rule out using emergency powers under the Defense Production Act, while indicating he was not sure he would need to do so.
Polymarket Pricing: Anthropic 94.7% vs Google 3.65% vs OpenAI 2.0% on $16.06M Volume Ahead of June 30, 2026 Resolve
On Polymarket’s multi-outcome contract “Which company has best AI model end of June?”, Anthropic leads at 94.7% (Yes 94.7% / No 5.3%), down from 96.2% previously. Google is priced at 3.65% (Yes 3.65% / No 96.35%) and OpenAI at 2.0% (Yes 2.0% / No 98.0%), while xAI sits at 0.15% (Yes 0.15% / No 99.85%). Total volume is about $16.06 million, indicating heavy positioning toward an Anthropic win despite the incremental pullback in implied probability.
Any further changes in U.S. policy on foreign access to advanced AI models, and any update to the June 30, 2026 resolution timeline, could drive the next repricing across the leading outcomes.
Beyond Anthropic: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching on U.S. Policy and AI Export Controls
Beyond company leaderboards in AI, Polymarket flows are also clustering around U.S. policy-adjacent geopolitical risk, with traders heavily leaning to “No” at 95.5% in “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” and “No” at 93.5% in “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” In a related shipping-focused line, “Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?” is priced at “No” 97.9%. Further out the curve, positioning remains tilted toward “No” 87.0% in “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?”, underscoring how quickly export-control narratives can bleed into broader security and supply-chain hedges.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +17.1 |
| 7d | +17.1 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Which company has best AI model end of June?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$16,057,153
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 94.7% | 5.3% |
| 3.6% | 96.3% | |
| OpenAI | 2.0% | 98.0% |
| xAI | 0.1% | 99.8% |
+11 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 96%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 94%
- Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) — Starmer - UK PM 68%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? — No 87%
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? — No 98%