Trump floats Hormuz tolls as Polymarket Petro-out odds slip to 51.5%
Trump Threatens Strait of Hormuz Tolls as Iran Claims Closure, Sending Polymarket “Petro Out Before 2027” Odds Down to 5
President Donald Trump said the U.S. may impose its own tolls in the Strait of Hormuz if a peace deal with Iran fails, injecting fresh uncertainty into negotiations after Iran said it had closed the key oil shipping route. On Polymarket, the "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" market saw its leading outcome, "Petro - Colombia President," slide to 51.5% from 60.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices "Petro - Colombia President" as the top outcome at 51.5% Yes (48.5% No) to be the next leader out of power before 2027.
- The contract repriced lower in the latest update, with the leading outcome down 9.0 percentage points to 51.5% amid renewed geopolitical headlines.
- The market resolves by 2026-12-31, and the leading outcome is down 18.0 points over both the last 24 hours and the last 7 days.
President Donald Trump said the United States may impose its own tolls in the Strait of Hormuz if a peace deal with Iran fails, after Iran said it had closed the oil shipping route. Trump said there would be no tolls during a 60-day ceasefire tied to a peace deal signed this week, and no tolls after that period unless they are imposed by and for the United States. Iran's joint military command said it closed the Strait in response to Israel's continued attacks against Lebanon, even as the agreement called for the route to be open and free of tolls during the negotiation period. Vice President JD Vance disputed Iran's claim that the Strait was shut, saying he was not seeing evidence of a shutdown. The memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran set conditions including an end to military operations by the two countries and their allies, opening the Strait, lifting a U.S. naval blockade, and an Iranian reaffirmation that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
Polymarket Data: $1.96M Matched Volume as “Petro” Leads at 51.5% vs “Starmer” at 42.0% in Leader-Out-Before-2027 Market
Polymarket shows $1,962,988 in matched volume in the "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" multi-outcome contract, with pricing concentrated in the top two names. "Petro - Colombia President" leads at 51.5% Yes / 48.5% No, while "Starmer - UK PM" trades at 42.0% Yes / 58.0% No, leaving a wide gap to the rest of the field. Longshots remain near-zero, including "Díaz-Canel - Cuba President" at 1.35% Yes / 98.65% No and "Abbas - President of Palestine" at 0.65% Yes / 99.35% No. The leading line has weakened from 60.5% to 51.5% in the latest move, consistent with a choppier tape signaled by a 24-hour change of -18.0 points.
Traders will be watching for further shifts in pricing across the top two outcomes as the market heads toward its 2026-12-31 resolution deadline.
Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Polymarket Political Contracts Traders Are Watching Before 2027
Beyond the immediate Middle East-driven headlines, Polymarket traders are also clustering in a handful of big political contracts that tie U.S.-Iran diplomacy to the longer-range U.S. election cycle. In “What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?”, “Oil Sanction Relief” is priced at 100% on $11,340,914 in volume, while “Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?” puts “J.D. Vance” at 100% on $2,140,352. Attention also extends to 2028 positioning, with “Presidential Election Winner 2028” pricing “JD Vance” at 20.35% on $635,507,754, and “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” listing “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” at 49% on $662,768,238.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -18.0 |
| 7d | -18.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$1,962,988
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Petro - Colombia President | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Starmer - UK PM | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 1.4% | 98.7% |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 0.7% | 99.3% |
+20 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? — Oil Sanction Relief 100%
- Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 20%
- Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? — J.D. Vance 100%
- Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? — Masoud Pezeshkian 100%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49%