Trump Iran MOU heads to Congress as Polymarket invasion odds tick up to 12.5%
Trump’s Iran MOU Heads to Congress: Polymarket “U.S. Invade Iran Before 2027” Odds Tick Up to 12.5%
U.S. President Donald Trump said he could send an Iran memorandum of understanding to Congress as the agreement appeared on track to take effect on Friday. On Polymarket, traders slightly marked up the odds in “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” to 12.5% from 11.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 12.5% chance of a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027, with “No” leading at 87.5%.
- Traders nudged “Yes” up by 1.0 percentage point as headlines focused on a Geneva-bound Iran MOU and political scrutiny in Congress.
- The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, while the latest odds print shows a 24-hour change of -8.0 percentage points in “Yes.”
Donald Trump said he could send an Iran memorandum of understanding to Congress, as the proposed agreement appeared set to take effect on Friday with no sudden reversal reported from either side. The signing in Geneva was described as drawing closer, even as some members of Congress complained that the president should seek their signoff rather than simply transmit the text. Trump also urged Russia to “make a deal” to end the Ukraine war and pledged further support to Kyiv during a G7 meeting in France. Markets were described as optimistic on oil supplies, with Brent crude futures falling 5% to $78.96 a barrel and U.S. WTI down 5.8% to $76.05. The report also said people familiar with the matter expected Iran oil sanctions relief to take effect immediately after the agreement is signed.
Polymarket Data: $38.0M Volume and 12.5% “Yes” vs 87.5% “No” Pricing on Iran Invasion Contract
Polymarket marked “Yes” at 12.5% and “No” at 87.5%, with the implied invasion risk up 1.0 percentage point from 11.5%. Trading volume stood at $38,043,431, pointing to deep liquidity for a long-dated geopolitical contract. Despite the small uptick, positioning remains heavily skewed toward “No,” which continues to dominate pricing into the 2026-12-31 resolution.
Any further repricing is likely to track incremental changes in the “Yes” line around the low-teens and whether high volume continues to concentrate on “No” at the current mid-to-high 80s odds.
Beyond Iran: Other High-Interest Polymarket Geopolitical Contracts Traders Are Watching (Ukraine, G7, Oil)
Beyond the headline contract, Polymarket users are also clustering in adjacent Iran-linked event markets that offer more granular read-throughs on political stability and regional logistics. “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” is priced at 99.75% for “No” on $60,819,732 in volume, while “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” implies a 77.5% “No” on $25,637,731. Short-dated deal-timing contracts remain heavily one-sided, with “US-Iran deal text released by...?” at 100% for “June 19” on $2,627,798, and “US-Iran deal physically signed by...?” at 99.95% for “June 30” on $471,604 after a 14.45 percentage-point move.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -8.0 |
| 7d | -8.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 12.5%
- Volume: ~$38,043,431
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 12.5% / No 87.5%; No: Yes 12.5% / No 87.5%
Related Markets
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No 100%
- US-Iran deal text released by...? — June 19 100%
- US-Iran deal physically signed by...? — June 30 100%
- Iran closes its airspace by...? — July 15 100%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 78%