Trump–Iran deal targets Hormuz reopening as Polymarket normal-traffic odds slip
Trump–Pezeshkian Strait of Hormuz Reopening Deal: Polymarket Traders Shift Toward “No” by July 31
An interim memorandum of understanding electronically signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian included provisions aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz after months of conflict. Polymarket traders marked down the odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31, with the contract now favoring the “No” outcome.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices “No” at 58% and “Yes” at 42% for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31.
- Odds moved lower for “Yes” after details of a reopening plan emerged, even as traders remained skeptical about a full normalization timeline.
- The market resolves on 2026-07-31, after a 19-point drop in the last 24 hours and 7 days to 42% for “Yes”.
President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a 14-point interim memorandum of understanding on Wednesday aimed at ending the war and halting military operations in the region. The agreement includes provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Officials said commercial vessels should be able to begin traveling through the strait immediately, and Iran agreed to establish a 60-day toll-free pass for commercial vessels. Senior US officials said the US would start lifting its naval blockade right away and fully end it within 30 days; the blockade began on April 13 and involved more than 20 warships and 200 aircraft. After news of the signing, US WTI crude traded just over $75 a barrel, down around 2%, while a trade data platform tracking ship movements said verified crossings were still at historic lows as of June 17.
Polymarket Odds and Volume: “Yes” Falls to 42% vs 58% “No” as $6.58M Trades and -19 Points Hit in 24 Hours
On Polymarket, the binary contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” was last priced at 42% Yes versus 58% No, with No the leading outcome. The Yes side has fallen 5.5 percentage points from 47.5% to 42.0% in the latest move, while total matched volume stands at $6,579,309. The 24-hour and 7-day change in Yes pricing is -19 points, and the average of the last five readings is 51%, signaling a sharp recent repricing toward No despite sizeable liquidity.
Traders will focus on whether shipping activity measurably rebounds from reported historic lows and whether the stated timeline to fully end the blockade within 30 days is met ahead of the July 31 resolution date.
Beyond the Strait of Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Bettors Are Watching
Beyond the July 31 line, traders are clustering into adjacent timing and policy contracts: “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” has “No” at 91.5% on $27,596,635 in volume, while “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” prices “No” at 79.5% and “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?” shows “Yes” at 85.5%. On the diplomatic and nuclear track, “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” is marked at 55.5% “Yes” with $7,038,950 traded, and “US-Iran deal text released by...?” sits at 100% for “June 19” on $5,053,775.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -19.0 |
| 7d | -19.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 42.0%
- Volume: ~$6,579,309
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 42.0% / No 58.0%; No: Yes 42.0% / No 58.0%
Related Markets
- US-Iran deal text released by...? — June 19 100%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — Yes 56%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 92%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 80%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? — Yes 86%