Trump–Pezeshkian MOU signed, Polymarket cuts Iran enrichment-end odds to 61.5%
U.S.-Iran MOU Reopens Nuclear Talks: Polymarket Odds for Ending Uranium Enrichment Drop to 61.5%
A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has reopened diplomacy after months of strikes and a crisis around the Strait of Hormuz. On Polymarket, the implied odds that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by Dec. 31 fell to 61.5% from 74.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 61.5% chance that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by Dec. 31 (Yes 61.5%, No 38.5%).
- Odds fell 13.0 percentage points as traders digested a U.S.-Iran MOU centered on de-escalation and economic concessions ahead of nuclear talks.
- The market is set to resolve on 2026-12-31, after a 24-hour move of -13.0 points and a 7-day change of -13.0 points.
A memorandum of understanding signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian sets out political, military and economic consequences after the decision to attack Iran on Feb. 28, according to a commentary by international editor Jeremy Bowen. The piece says thousands have been killed, many of them civilians, in Iran and Lebanon, and argues the conflict has left Tehran empowered rather than weakened. It describes Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a lever that forced Washington into concessions, including language that the U.S. would lift a counter-blockade of Iranian ports, waive sanctions to allow Iran to earn billions from oil exports, and start returning billions more by unfreezing overseas assets. The MOU also calls for an end to the war in Lebanon, a point the commentary says Israel rejects because it wants freedom of action there, creating potential for a sharper U.S.-Israel rift. The commentary says negotiators are expected to return to work on a nuclear deal while shipping resumes through the Strait.
Market Data: $768,001 Volume as “Yes” Slides 13 Points to 61.5% (No 38.5%) Ahead of 2026-12-31 Resolution
Polymarket’s binary contract "Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?" is trading at Yes 61.5% versus No 38.5%, with $768,001 in volume. The implied probability for Yes is down 13.0 percentage points from 74.5%, a sharp repricing within a low-volatility tape. The current spread between Yes and No suggests traders still lean toward an agreement by year-end, but with materially higher skepticism than the prior level.
Whether the Yes price stabilizes near the low-60s or continues to slide will likely depend on how traders interpret the path and credibility of any nuclear negotiations implied by the MOU ahead of the market’s 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Beyond the Iran Deal: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond the year-end timeline, traders are also clustering into adjacent Polymarket contracts that probe disclosure, deadlines and shipping normalization. “US-Iran deal text released by...?” is priced at 100.0% for June 19 with $6,368,438 in volume, while “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” has “No” at 58.5% on $7,348,501. On the logistics side, the biggest liquidity is in “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” with “No” at 92.5% and $27,936,931 in volume, alongside “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” where “No” sits at 58.5% on $6,699,696.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -13.0 |
| 7d | -13.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 61.5%
- Volume: ~$768,001
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 61.5% / No 38.5%; No: Yes 61.5% / No 38.5%
Related Markets
- US-Iran deal text released by...? — June 19 100%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 58%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 92%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No 58%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 75%