US ends Iran blockade; Polymarket sees Hormuz normal by July at 46%
U.S. Ends Iran Naval Blockade: “Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31?” Odds Lift for Yes, No Still Leads
The U.S. said it ended its naval blockade of Iran after the two countries signed an agreement aimed at ending the Middle East war, a deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On Polymarket, that headline pushed trading in the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” contract, with the market still leaning to No even as the Yes side firmed.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices No at 54.5% and Yes at 45.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31.
- Odds moved up for Yes after news the U.S. ended its naval blockade of Iran following a deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market resolves on 2026-07-31, with Yes down 3.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours based on the historical summary.
The United States has ended its naval blockade of Iran after the two countries signed a deal intended to end the Middle East war, according to U.S. Central Command. CENTCOM said the move was made in line with the president’s direction, while adding that some U.S. vessels would remain in the general area. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he approved the agreement despite holding a different view, and said future in-person talks would not amount to accepting Washington’s position. The agreement centers on 14 points that include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a requirement that Iran never have a nuclear weapon, and a commitment to a $300 billion fund for reconstruction and economic development that does not require U.S. contributions. It also sets a maximum 60-day period to reach a final deal, with an option to extend by mutual consent, as U.S. and Iranian representatives are still expected to meet in Switzerland for further talks.
Polymarket Data: $6.73M Volume as No Holds 54.5% vs Yes 45.5% on Hormuz Traffic Contract
Polymarket shows $6,728,712 in volume on the binary contract “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” with Yes at 45.5% and No at 54.5%. The Yes side is up 3.5 percentage points versus the prior reading (42.0% to 45.5%), but No remains the leading outcome. The historical summary shows a 24-hour change of -3.5 points for Yes, with high volatility implied by the recent swings and an average of 51.0% across the last five observations.
Polymarket traders will focus on whether the July 31 resolution date draws closer with sustained pricing above 50% for Yes, or whether liquidity continues to favor the No side near the mid-50s.
Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond the near-term shipping outlook, Polymarket traders are also clustering into adjacent contracts that map the timeline and substance of any broader reset. In “US-Iran deal text released by...?”, the market is priced at 100.0% for June 19 on $6,579,842 of volume, while nuclear-related bets still skew heavily negative, with “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” at 80.5% No on $8,625,331 and “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” at 53.0% No on $816,333. Another closely watched gauge of regional normalization is “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?”, where No leads at 90.5% with $28,163,263 traded.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -3.5 |
| 7d | -3.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 45.5%
- Volume: ~$6,728,712
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 45.5% / No 54.5%; No: Yes 45.5% / No 54.5%
Related Markets
- US-Iran deal text released by...? — June 19 100%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 80%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? — No 70%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? — No 53%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 90%