US-Iran Hormuz passage deal fails to sway Polymarket, 'Yes' at 7.5%
US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Safe-Passage MoU: Polymarket Traders Price “No” as Odds Lurch Lower
A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding that includes a 60-day commitment to allow safe commercial passage in the Strait of Hormuz has sharpened focus on whether shipping flows normalize quickly. On Polymarket, the contract "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" is priced as a low-probability outcome, with traders favoring "No."
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices "No" at 92.5% and "Yes" at 7.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June.
- The market’s pricing implies traders see normalization by the deadline as unlikely despite heavy interest and recent repricing.
- The contract resolves on 2026-06-30, and the "Yes" side is down 34 points over the past 24 hours and 7 days.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais rejected the International Energy Agency’s projection of a supply glut, arguing that forecasts should be grounded in “actual numbers” rather than assumptions. The IEA said supply could surge by 8 million barrels per day while demand rises by 2 million barrels per day in 2027, and that a lasting resolution to the conflict could contribute to an oil overhang next year. Al-Ghais said such headlines can add volatility and questioned what the IEA sees that OPEC and others do not. His remarks came as investors weighed an agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending the Middle East conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The two countries signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding that includes a 60-day period for safe commercial passage without tolls, with further talks planned over the next 60 days and discussions with Oman on future administration and maritime services in the strait.
Strait of Hormuz Normalization Market: $27.9M Volume as “Yes” Drops to 7.5% vs “No” at 92.5%
Polymarket shows 7.5% for "Yes" and 92.5% for "No" on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June, with the "Yes" price down from 8.5% previously. Trading volume stands at $27,936,931, signaling deep participation even as odds remain heavily skewed toward "No." The past 24 hours show a 34-point drop in the implied probability for "Yes," matching the 7-day move, indicating aggressive selling of the normalization thesis into the June 30 resolution date.
Polymarket pricing into the 2026-06-30 resolution will hinge on whether the contract’s implied probability stabilizes after the sharp 24-hour repricing and whether volume continues to build at current odds.
Beyond the Strait: Other High-Impact Polymarket Contracts Tied to OPEC, IEA Supply Glut Forecasts, and Oil-Price Volatil
Beyond shipping timelines, Polymarket traders are also crowding into adjacent Iran-risk contracts that could reset the broader geopolitical backdrop. In “US-Iran deal text released by...?”, June 19 sits at 100% with $6,368,438 traded, while “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?” is priced at 58.5% No on $7,348,501 in volume. Further out, “Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?” shows 61.5% Yes, and the calendar shifts to later maritime benchmarks with “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” at 58.5% No and “...by July 15?” at 75% No.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -34.0 |
| 7d | -34.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 7.5%
- Volume: ~$27,936,931
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 7.5% / No 92.5%; No: Yes 7.5% / No 92.5%
Related Markets
- US-Iran deal text released by...? — June 19 100%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No 58%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? — Yes 62%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — No 58%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 75%