U.S.-Iran MOU spotlights Hormuz reopening as Polymarket Yes slips to 14.5%
U.S.-Iran MoU to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Hits Polymarket Odds, “Yes” Slips to 14.5%
A newly signed U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war in Iran includes provisions tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, putting fresh focus on the outlook for maritime flows. On Polymarket, odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June fell to 14.5% from 17.5%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 14.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June, with “No” leading at 85.5%.
- Traders marked down the “Yes” side by 3.0 percentage points, reflecting increased skepticism after the latest headlines tied to a U.S.-Iran deal.
- The contract resolves on June 30, 2026, after a 24-hour and 7-day move of -28.0 percentage points in the implied “Yes” odds.
A U.S. deal intended to end the war in Iran drew criticism across the political spectrum, with critics arguing it is heavily favorable to Iran, while some Republicans voiced tentative support as an alternative to prolonging an unpopular conflict ahead of midterm elections. The memorandum of understanding was signed overnight Wednesday by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and was described as light on details, leaving key issues such as Iran’s nuclear program for a second round of negotiations over a 60-day period. Under the immediate provisions described, the United States would lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran would use “its best efforts” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls for 60 days only. The deal also gives Iran access to $300 billion in private funds toward investments, including rebuilding infrastructure. The U.S. Treasury Department would issue immediate waivers on exports of Iranian oil and commit to lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian assets in foreign accounts in a final agreement.
Polymarket Data: $26.37M Matched Volume as “No” Leads 85.5% and “Yes” Drops 28 Points in 7 Days
On Polymarket, the “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” contract was last priced at Yes 14.5% versus No 85.5%, with the Yes side down 3.0 percentage points from 17.5%. Total matched volume stood at $26,371,682, indicating heavy liquidity even as the market remained skewed toward a negative outcome. The 24-hour and 7-day implied Yes move of -28.0 percentage points signals sustained selling pressure on the normalization scenario into the June 30, 2026 resolution date.
Traders will be watching for any measurable evidence of shipping normalization ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution date, alongside any market-moving clarifications that alter perceived odds.
Beyond Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond the shipping timeline itself, traders are spreading exposure across adjacent Iran-risk contracts that could reprice quickly on fresh headlines. Polymarket shows 99.65% on “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” (No leading) on $61,020,814 in volume, while event-driven markets like “US-Iran deal text released by...?” are pinned at 100% on June 19 with $3,106,190 matched. Aviation spillovers are also in focus with “Iran closes its airspace by...?” priced at 100% on July 15 with $6,122,796 in volume, and the calendar is being pushed out via “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” at 57.5% (Yes leading) on $6,282,429.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -28.0 |
| 7d | -28.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- Resolution window: Jun 30, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 14.5%
- Volume: ~$26,371,682
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 14.5% / No 85.5%; No: Yes 14.5% / No 85.5%
Related Markets
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No 100%
- US-Iran deal text released by...? — June 19 100%
- Iran closes its airspace by...? — July 15 100%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — Yes 58%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No 62%