US order hits Anthropic AI as Polymarket keeps RFK Jr. at 49% for 2028 GOP
U.S. Order Forces Anthropic to Pull Fable 5 Access, While Polymarket’s 2028 GOP Nominee Odds Stay Flat at 49% for RFK Jr
A U.S. government order that prompted Anthropic to disable access to its Fable 5 model has put fresh attention on how regulatory actions can ripple through prediction markets. On Polymarket’s “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” contract, pricing was flat, with the leading outcome holding steady despite the separate headline.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the leading 2028 Republican nominee pick at 49% (Yes 49% / No 51%).
- The market was flat at the timestamp, with the leader unchanged even as a separate news cycle focused on a U.S. order affecting Anthropic’s AI model access.
- The contract is scheduled to resolve on 2028-11-07, and the market’s 24-hour and 7-day changes were both 0.0 percentage points.
Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi priced a 58% chance that Anthropic will restore access to its Fable 5 model for U.S. customers by July 1, and a 74% chance that access returns by July 10. Anthropic said it disabled access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models on Friday evening to comply with an order from the U.S. government. The order directed the company to suspend access to the technology for any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, and Anthropic disabled the model for all customers to ensure compliance. The restriction came days after the company announced Fable 5, and the company reportedly met with federal officials on Monday to discuss the issue. The report also said Polymarket traders put 67% odds on access being restored to U.S. customers by July 1.
Polymarket Data: $659,510,854 Volume and Tight 49% RFK Jr. vs 33.35% J.D. Vance Split in “Republican Presidential Nomine
On Polymarket, the “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” market showed $659,510,854 in volume, with the leader unchanged at 49% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Yes 49% / No 51%). J.D. Vance was next at 33.35% (Yes 33.35% / No 66.65%), followed by Marco Rubio at 24.35% (Yes 24.35% / No 75.65%). Longer-shot pricing was steep, with Tucker Carlson at 7.65% (Yes 7.65% / No 92.35%) and Donald Trump at 2.25% (Yes 2.25% / No 97.75%), indicating a highly concentrated book near the top outcomes.
Watch whether the top two outcomes diverge from the current 49% vs 33.35% split and whether volume continues to build without a corresponding move in implied odds ahead of the 2028-11-07 resolution date.
Beyond the 2028 Election: Polymarket and Kalshi Odds on Anthropic Restoring Fable 5 Access by July 1 and July 10
Elsewhere on Polymarket, attention is splitting between geopolitics and broader election positioning. In the Iran-focused contract “What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?”, traders have the leading outcome “Oil Sanction Relief” at 100.0% on $4,406,223 in volume, while the larger “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market shows “JD Vance” leading at 16.65% with $630,380,226 traded. Near-term White House risk is also being priced, with “Trump out as President by June 30?” implying a 99.45% chance of “No” on $7,802,666 in volume.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +0.0 |
| 7d | +0.0 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$659,510,854
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| J.D. Vance | 33.4% | 66.7% |
| Marco Rubio | 24.4% | 75.7% |
| Tucker Carlson | 7.7% | 92.3% |
+32 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30? — Oil Sanction Relief 100%
- Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 17%
- Trump out as President by June 30? — No 99%