US says Hormuz flows near normal; Polymarket July 15 return odds jump to 42.5%
Oil Slides to Pre-War Levels as U.S. Says Hormuz Flows Near Normal, Pushing “Traffic Returns by July 15” Odds to 42.5%
Oil prices fell back to pre-war levels on June 25 after the United States said flows through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing normal. The shift in conditions helped lift Polymarket’s odds for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?” to 42.5% from 25.0%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 42.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15, versus 57.5% for No.
- The contract repriced higher after U.S. officials said Hormuz shipments were approaching pre-strike levels and crude slid to pre-war levels.
- The market resolves on 2026-07-15, with Yes odds up 17.5 percentage points from the prior 25.0% snapshot.
Oil prices fell to pre-war levels on June 25 after the United States said flows through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing normal and a senior U.S. diplomat wrapped a Gulf tour tied to support for a preliminary Iran deal. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on June 24 that shipments through the strait were approaching levels seen before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, with at least 20 million barrels exiting the strait in the prior 24 hours. Iran signaled it would keep asserting control, with the Revolutionary Guards on June 25 warning vessels to stick to routes designated by Tehran and rejecting newly announced routes not coordinated with Iran. The warning followed Oman’s announcement of temporary shipping lanes through the strait coordinated with the U.N. shipping agency. Data from the International Maritime Organization showed 57 ships carrying about 1,100 seafarers transited the strait since June 23 under an evacuation plan.
Polymarket Data: Yes Jumps +17.5 Points to 42.5% on $3.38M Volume While No Leads at 57.5%
On Polymarket, the binary contract was last priced at Yes 42.5% and No 57.5%, with No still the leading outcome. Yes odds have risen 17.5 percentage points from 25.0% previously, alongside total volume of $3,384,192. The pricing implies traders see a meaningful rebound scenario but still lean toward traffic not being “normal” by the July 15, 2026 resolution date.
Polymarket positioning may swing with new read-throughs from tanker transit activity and any further headline-driven shifts in risk appetite ahead of the July 15 resolution.
Beyond Hormuz Shipping: Other High-Interest Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Beyond the July 15 horizon, traders are also clustering into shorter-dated Hormuz and Iran risk gauges that can reprice quickly on headlines and shipping data. Polymarket shows 90.4% for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?” on $35,150,583 in volume, alongside 59.5% for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” with $9,043,471 traded. On the diplomacy track, “US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?” has “August 31” leading at 23.5% ($1,944,292), while political tail-risk remains heavily discounted with “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” at 99.75% for No on $64,151,462 in volume.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -2.5 |
| 7d | -2.5 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- Resolution window: Jul 15, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Leading implied prob.: 42.5%
- Volume: ~$3,384,192
- Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 42.5% / No 57.5%; No: Yes 42.5% / No 57.5%
Related Markets
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No 90%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — Yes 60%
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? — August 31 24%
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? — 20+ 100%
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — No 100%