USD stays firm, Polymarket puts 2026 no-cut Fed odds at 77.75%
Fed Rate Cuts 2026: Polymarket “0 Cuts” Odds Slide to 77.75% After USD-Bullish EUR/USD Call
Polymarket traders trimmed expectations for Federal Reserve easing in 2026, with the leading outcome in the "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" ladder slipping to 77.75% at the latest update. The move followed fresh market commentary on EUR/USD that argued the U.S. dollar retains the upper hand, a view typically aligned with relatively tighter U.S. monetary-policy expectations.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices the leading outcome, 0 Fed rate cuts in 2026, at 77.75% (Yes 77.75% / No 22.25%).
- Odds moved lower after new EUR/USD commentary said the advantage remains with the U.S. dollar, reinforcing a tighter-policy narrative.
- The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, and the leading outcome is down from 82.1% previously (a 4.35-point drop).
A new EUR/USD analysis said the advantage remains with the U.S. dollar, reinforcing the view that the greenback continues to hold a relative edge. The commentary framed the dollar as better positioned than the euro, keeping the balance of risks skewed toward USD strength in the near term. The piece highlighted that this relative advantage persists rather than signaling a clear turn in favor of the single currency. The assessment points to ongoing differences in perceived macro and policy backdrops that can keep EUR/USD under pressure. The update was published on 2026-06-29.
Polymarket Data: $39.6M Volume and Ladder Pricing Shows 77.75% on 0 Fed Cuts, 12.5% on 1 Cut
In Polymarket’s ladder market "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?", the highest-probability rung remains 0 (0 bps) with Yes at 77.75% and No at 22.25%, on total volume of $39,613,053. The next rungs are priced far lower: 1 (25 bps) shows Yes 12.5% versus No 87.5%, while 2 (50 bps) sits at Yes 4.35% and No 95.65%. Longer-tail outcomes are heavily discounted, with 3 (75 bps) at Yes 1.15% / No 98.85% and 4 (100 bps) at Yes 0.45% / No 99.55%, signaling traders are concentrated around the “no cuts” scenario rather than a multi-cut easing cycle.
The market is set to resolve on 2026-12-31; traders will likely reprice the ladder if subsequent macro or policy signals materially shift expectations for the path of Fed rates in 2026.
Beyond Fed Bets: Other High-Volume FX and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching
Elsewhere on Polymarket, traders are also clustering around near-term policy and political risk gauges. “Fed Decision in July?” shows 81.5% on “No change” with $23,514,337 in volume, while “Which party will win the House in 2026?” prices the Democratic Party at 82.5% with $7,928,231 traded—contracts that increasingly serve as cross-market reference points for positioning across rates, FX, and broader risk sentiment.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.2 |
| 7d | +2.2 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$39,613,053
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 1 (25 bps) | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| 2 (50 bps) | 4.3% | 95.7% |
| 3 (75 bps) | 1.1% | 98.8% |
+9 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Fed Decision in July? — No change 82%
- Which party will win the House in 2026? — Democratic Party 82%