Warsh Fed holds steady; Polymarket boosts 2026 no-cuts odds to 82.9%
Fed Holds Rates Steady Under Chair Kevin Warsh, Polymarket Boosts “0 Fed Cuts in 2026” to 82.9% as Stocks Slide
U.S. stocks fell after the Federal Reserve held rates steady in its first decision under Chair Kevin Warsh while signaling a higher likelihood of rate hikes later this year. On Polymarket, traders pushed up pricing in the “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” market, with the “0 (0 bps)” outcome leading at 82.9%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices “0 (0 bps)” as the leading outcome at 82.9% in “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?”.
- The repricing followed a Fed decision to hold rates steady while projections indicated growing odds of a rate hike by year-end.
- The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, with the leading outcome up 3.2 percentage points to 82.9% from 79.7%.
U.S. equities sank after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in its first policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, while pointing to an increasing likelihood of rate hikes later in the year. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 each fell by more than 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 1%, or about 500 points. The selloff followed economic projections showing that nine of the 18 FOMC members who submitted forecasts see a rate hike by year-end, with Warsh not submitting projections. The report said traders moved to fully price in a quarter-point hike by year-end, while policymakers had projected one 2026 rate cut in March. It added that inflation rose to the highest level in three years, with higher energy prices tied to conflict in the Middle East, and investors were watching whether blocked oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz could be cleared quickly amid an interim U.S.-Iran deal.
“How Many Fed Rate Cuts in 2026?” Sees $36.3M Volume as “0 (0 bps)” Jumps to 82.9% (+3.2 pts, +15.65 in 24h)
In Polymarket’s “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” ladder, the top line implies traders heavily favor no cuts: “0 (0 bps)” Yes 82.9% versus No 17.1% on $36,323,347 in volume. The market assigns much smaller chances to any easing, with “1 (25 bps)” Yes 12.5% / No 87.5% and “2 (50 bps)” Yes 2.4% / No 97.6%. Farther out on the ladder, “3 (75 bps)” sits at Yes 1.25% / No 98.75%, while “4 (100 bps)” is Yes 0.5% / No 99.5%, showing thin conviction beyond the first rung. The leading outcome rose 3.2 percentage points to 82.9% from 79.7%, and the 24-hour change in the latest odds is +15.65 points, consistent with a sharper tilt toward “0 cuts” positioning into the 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Watch whether the market continues to concentrate around “0 (0 bps)” or shifts toward “1 (25 bps)” after subsequent Fed communications and updated pricing across the ladder ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution.
Beyond the Fed: Other High-Traffic Polymarket Contracts Tied to Inflation, Oil Prices, and Middle East Risk
Beyond the longer-dated cuts debate, attention on Polymarket is also clustering around nearer-term policy and broader macro risk. In “Fed Decision in July?”, “No change” leads at 78.5% on $12,260,061 in volume, while “Fed rate hike in 2026?” is closer to a toss-up with “Yes” at 51.5% on $2,243,782, underscoring how traders are calibrating everything from the next meeting to the terminal path for rates.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +15.7 |
| 7d | +15.7 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$36,323,347
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| 1 (25 bps) | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| 2 (50 bps) | 2.4% | 97.6% |
| 3 (75 bps) | 1.2% | 98.8% |
+9 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
- Fed Decision in July? — No change 78%
- Fed rate hike in 2026? — Yes 52%