FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. "The Federal Reserve System was created on December 23, 1913, when President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law." Federal Reserve has control over monetary policy exclusively for the benefit of the United States. Typical monetary functions are money issuance, money price, interest rate, and more. Since the US Dollar has served as the de facto world currency. Federal Reserve has inevitable influences on the stability of the monetary and financial system and monetary policies of other countries.
Polymarket sees Sept Fed hold at 56.5% as rate-hike bets linger
After the Fed released June meeting minutes showing officials split on where rates end 2026, a Kalshi report put the chance of a hike this year near 54%.
Polymarket odds lift to 78.5% for Fed hold in July as mortgage rates rise
Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rate rose to 6.49% this week, alongside firmer Treasury yields.
Polymarket odds jump to 86% for Fed hold in July after tariff inflation talk
A New York Fed post warned U.S. firms plan more tariff-linked price hikes over the next six months, with increases arriving in a staggered “trickle up” pattern as tariffs shift.
Polymarket prices July Fed hold at 85.5% after minutes spark repricing
Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers split on whether rates might rise or fall, while voting unanimously to keep the benchmark at 3.5%–3.75%.
Oil rally lifts loonie as Polymarket pegs July Fed hold at 75.5%
Canada’s dollar strengthened as oil prices climbed, with traders bracing for upcoming U.S. jobs data that could reshape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Oil shock jitters trim Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates steady in September
A market note this week highlighted conflict-driven oil volatility and positioning as a key driver of near-term swings, warning it could ripple into broader risk sentiment and rates expectations.
Higher mortgage outlook dips Kane to 26.5% in Polymarket Ballon d'Or 2026
For the week ending July 2, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.43%, and a report warned it could stay between 6.50% and 6.70% until 2027.
RBNZ hikes to 2.50% as Polymarket puts 2026 Fed hike at 49.5%
On July 8, 2026, New Zealand’s central bank lifted its policy rate 25 basis points to 2.50%, reinforcing that tightening cycles aren’t universally over.
Middle East tensions lift oil as Polymarket sees 82.5% odds Fed holds in July
U.S. Central Command said Tuesday evening the U.S. launched powerful strikes on Iran after attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, helping lift WTI crude more than 2% above $72.
BofA warns of equity snapback as Polymarket puts Sept Fed hold at 69.5%
After the S&P 500’s best quarter since 2020, Bank of America warned valuations could “snapback” as speculation runs hot and the Fed battles sticky inflation.