Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Price Prediction: Strong Q3 growth meets a mixed near-term tape
Q3 strength is still doing the heavy lifting
Texas Instruments (TXN) is being priced off a solid third-quarter print and better-than-expected guidance. TI reported Q3 2026 revenue of $6.06 billion, net income of $2.43 billion and EPS of $2.62 on October 21, 2026, with revenue up 28% year over year and EPS beating consensus. Management also guided Q4 revenue to $5.80 billion to $6.30 billion and said demand remained broad across industrial, automotive and data center markets. That matters because the market is still leaning on evidence of a real cyclical recovery, not just a valuation rerating. citeturn0search0
The same earnings release also highlighted trailing 12-month operating cash flow of $9.9 billion, which reinforces the quality of the cash generation behind the dividend and capital return profile. MarketBeat’s November 11 note said TI raised its quarterly dividend from $1.42 to $1.52 per share, equal to $6.08 annually and about a 2.0% yield. citeturn0search0turn0search1
Price is holding the gains, but momentum is not one-way
TXN traded at $305.49 in the latest supplied market data, down 1.46% on the day and inside a 24-hour range of $302.80 to $315.43. The stock is still above its 7-day SMA of $291.28, 20-day SMA of $297.70 and 50-day SMA of $289.03, as well as its 12-day EMA of $296.43 and 26-day EMA of $293.64. That keeps the broader short-term trend constructive even though the structure is labeled short-term distribution because the 7-day average sits below the 20-day average. citeturn0search0
RSI at 58.12 is neutral rather than stretched, while MACD histogram is flat at 0.0000, which suggests momentum has paused rather than broken. Stochastic %K at 73.47 is leaning elevated, so TXN is not oversold on this tape; it looks more like a stock digesting a strong move than one under heavy trend damage. The supplied Bollinger framework puts the upper band at $322.51, middle band at $297.70 and lower band at $272.89, with price still above the middle band. citeturn0search0
The key levels are clearly defined
The immediate inflection zone sits around the pivot point at $307.91. Above that, the next resistance is $313.01, then strong resistance at $320.54. Below spot, immediate support is $300.38 and stronger support comes in at $295.28. With ATR(14) at $14.17, day-to-day swings remain large enough to matter, so breaks of those levels should be treated as meaningful rather than cosmetic. citeturn0search0
Derivatives are not confirming outright enthusiasm
Binance perpetual futures data is more balanced than bullish. Funding is flat at 0.0000%, open interest is 684.17 contracts, and OI fell 4.01% over 24 hours to a reported open-interest value of $185,376. Global Binance accounts are long 56.9% and short 43.1%, while top-trader accounts are long 55.4% and short 44.6%. That tilts modestly long, but not aggressively so, especially with taker buy/sell ratio at 0.3883, which points to more active selling than buying in the near term. citeturn0search0
Analyst targets still support the stock, but dispersion matters
On the analyst side, the data is constructive but not unanimous. StockAnalysis shows an average analyst price target of $336.86 from 35 analysts and an average rating of Buy. MarketBeat, using a different coverage set, reported an average target of $315.37 from 31 analysts, with 17 rating TXN Buy or Strong Buy. That spread is a reminder that analyst conviction is positive, but not tightly clustered around one valuation view. citeturn0search0turn0search1
What matters next
TXN’s setup now hinges on whether the stock can defend the $300.38 to $295.28 support band while building back above $307.91 and $313.01. If the shares can reclaim the upper resistance zone, the market has room to test the recent highs; if support gives way, the current pullback can deepen quickly because the trade is still extended relative to the 50-day average even after the recent consolidation. The underlying business remains supported by the third-quarter rebound, but the tape is asking for confirmation, not assuming it.