FEDERAL RESERVE
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. "The Federal Reserve System was created on December 23, 1913, when President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law." Federal Reserve has control over monetary policy exclusively for the benefit of the United States. Typical monetary functions are money issuance, money price, interest rate, and more. Since the US Dollar has served as the de facto world currency. Federal Reserve has inevitable influences on the stability of the monetary and financial system and monetary policies of other countries.
Inflation warning revives hike talk as Polymarket keeps 2026 at 82% zero cuts
A new opinion piece says inflation risks extend beyond oil, pointing to two less obvious forces that could keep prices sticky and even make the Fed weigh a hike instead of cuts.
Barclays sees USDHKD capped as Polymarket boosts July Fed hold odds to 75.5%
Barclays said USDHKD’s upside may be capped below 7.84 as rate differentials and policy expectations drive pricing.
Dollar spikes on hawkish Warsh Fed, Polymarket keeps SpaceX atop 2026 IPO
The U.S. dollar hit its strongest level since May 2025 after the Fed’s first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh pushed traders to a more hawkish rate path.
BofA flags 2026 hikes; Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 73.5%
After the latest FOMC meeting, Bank of America shifted its call to three quarter-point Fed rate hikes in 2026, citing fading tolerance for above-target inflation and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin
Goldman warns SE Asia food shock as Polymarket puts July Fed hold at 74%
Goldman Sachs said rising oil and fertilizer costs plus a possible late-2026 El Nino could add 2.1 points to Southeast Asia food inflation over the next year.
Tech-led stock slide as traders cut Polymarket 2026 Fed hike odds to 57.5%
U.S. stocks finished mixed Monday as big tech sank, pushing the S&P 500 down 0.37% and the Nasdaq off 1.32%, while investors awaited Thursday’s PCE inflation report.
Tech selloff nudges SpaceX IPO lead down as Polymarket stays at 85.5%
On Monday, U.S. stocks ended mixed as big tech slid, with the Nasdaq down 1.3% and SpaceX shares falling for a third straight day.
JPMAM flags midyear rebound; Polymarket puts July Fed hold odds at 74%
In its 2026 midyear outlook, JPMorgan Asset Management told investors to stay in stocks for the second half, citing AI-driven growth and resilient consumers despite lingering inflation.
Screwworm risk and USMCA July 1 clock keep Polymarket at 80% for zero Fed cuts
A June report said ground beef prices are up over 20% since January 2025 as tighter cattle supplies meet a screwworm outbreak spreading from Mexico into the US and looming USMCA renewal risk ahead of
Warsh launches Fed policy review as Polymarket lifts July hold odds to 73.5%
After his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh formed five task forces to rethink communications, data, inflation views, AI’s impact, and the $6.7 trillion balance sheet.